Xiangyu(SH:600057) Xinda Securities·2025-05-27 12:23Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Xiamen Xiangyu, is positioned as a leading player in the bulk supply chain industry, focusing on expanding its supply chain services and achieving stable growth through industry chain extension [5][15]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +20.1% and +17.3% respectively from 2011 to 2024, although there were fluctuations in 2023 and 2024 due to industry chain impacts [5][21]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the company's performance due to a series of incremental policies that are expected to improve industrial enterprise efficiency [5][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiamen Xiangyu is transforming into a global supply chain service provider, having established a core business in bulk supply chain management and comprehensive logistics since its listing in 2011 [16]. - The company has expanded its core supply chain systems to include agricultural products, metals, plastics, and more, while also enhancing its global presence [16][21]. Industry Analysis - The bulk supply chain industry is shifting from traditional trading models to comprehensive service providers, with profitability increasingly derived from service revenues rather than price differences [29][32]. - The industry is experiencing a rise in concentration, with the top five companies (CR5) increasing their market share from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.26% in 2024, despite a slight decline in operating volume due to macroeconomic factors [37][41]. Company Advantages - The company is continuously upgrading its supply chain service model and expanding its product categories, which is expected to lead to steady growth in overall business volume and profit margins [44][48]. - The logistics segment is also growing, with the logistics revenue reaching 9.422 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.0% [7][8]. - The company has entered the manufacturing sector, particularly in shipbuilding, which provides a stable profit base and enhances its ability to withstand market fluctuations [8][9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 1.741 billion, 2.018 billion, and 2.337 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of +22.7%, +15.9%, and +15.8% [9][10]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same period are 11.08, 9.55, and 8.25, indicating potential investment value [9][10].