下游开工率下滑，关注需求节奏

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5][12][50]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decline in downstream processing operating rates and emphasizes the need to monitor demand trends [5][50]. - The report indicates that the basic metals prices are showing a recovery trend due to the easing of tariffs between China and the US, despite short-term fluctuations [5][12]. - The overall economic momentum is showing signs of a turning point, with various macroeconomic factors influencing the industry [12][32]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the A-share market has seen an overall decline, but the non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.83 percentage points [15][19]. - The basic metal prices have shown mixed performance, with LME copper up by 1.8% and aluminum down by 0.6% [22][23]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased by 20,000 tons, with production reaching 841,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.05% [5][51]. - The average operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased to 61.4%, with variations across different products [5][53]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in domestic aluminum ingot inventory to 605,000 tons, down by 41,000 tons [5][53]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The industry maintains a profit margin of over 3,000 CNY per ton, with the current aluminum price at 20,400 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.84% increase [5][53]. - The report highlights that the cash cost for the industry is 16,998 CNY per ton, with a total cost of 18,207 CNY per ton, resulting in a profit of 3,405 CNY per ton [5][53]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report summarizes that the industrial added value in China has shown a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in April, with the non-ferrous metal mining sector growing by 6.6% [32]. - The US manufacturing sector is also affected by tariffs, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.7, indicating contraction [34]. - The European economic sentiment index has improved significantly, indicating a potential recovery in the region [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for future investments [5][12][50].