豆粕生猪：供应压力突现，基差持续走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure due to good weather in the US crop area and demand concerns caused by trade tariffs. The domestic continuous meal M09 is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and the spot basis is likely to continue to decline. For the hog market, the short - term supply and demand are slightly increased, in a slightly loose balance state, and the price may be under pressure [16][17] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 rose 0.54% to 2966 yuan/ton, with coastal oil mills' quotes up 20 - 50 yuan/ton in some areas but down 10 yuan/ton in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. DCE hog main contract 2509 fell 0.29% to 13560 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary hogs was 14.34 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract fell 0.66% to 1061 cents/bushel [2] 2. Main Producing Area Weather - There were showers in the western and southern parts of the US Midwest main producing area last weekend, which was beneficial for crop growth. The cold weather will last until most of this week, and the temperature will rise until June. Some sowing work may be delayed [4] 3. Macro and Industry News - In the 21st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, the soybean meal inventory increased by 70.01% week - on - week, and the unexecuted contracts decreased by 17.23% week - on - week. The US soybean import cost on May 27 was 4569 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day, and the Argentine soybean import cost was 3590 yuan, up 2 yuan. On May 26, the soybean meal transaction volume of major domestic oil mills decreased by 7.68 tons. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate was 66.73%, up 2.86%. On May 27, the daily hog slaughter volume of key slaughter enterprises increased by 1.95%, and the daily hog出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 0.43%. As of May 24, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.5%. In the 4th week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipment was 1115.43 tons. As of May 26, the national imported soybean port inventory was 567.068 tons. From January to April, the national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.4% [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, hog prices, and their basis, as well as charts of Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][12][14] 5. Analysis and Strategy - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure. The domestic continuous meal M09 is expected to oscillate. The national oil mills maintain a high startup level, and the soybean meal demand increases. The inventory is expected to accumulate faster in June. The spot basis is under pressure to decline [16] - Hogs: The supply slightly increases with general pressure, and the mid - term supply pressure tends to increase. The terminal demand decreases, but the demand may increase briefly during the Dragon Boat Festival. The short - term supply and demand are slightly increased, in a slightly loose balance state, and the price may be under pressure [17]