国投期货化工日报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Urea: ★★★, suggesting a relatively clear bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, showing a relatively clear bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish bias with a driving force for price decline, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for price decline, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply increases, weak demand, and cost changes [2][3][4] - Some products have potential investment opportunities, but also face various uncertainties and risks, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures price continued to decline and hit a new low. There is an expectation of a significant increase in supply, and market confidence is insufficient. The import volume last week rebounded significantly to over 300,000 tons. Although the MTO device in Jiangsu restarted, the support for the market was weak. The port showed a slight inventory build - up. Coal prices continued to fall, and the cost support for methanol was weak. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may accumulate during the Dragon Boat Festival. The market is expected to run weakly and stably, and attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2] Urea - The urea futures price lacked upward momentum and first rose then fell during the day. There is a temporary gap in agricultural demand due to the start of wheat harvesting in some areas, and the start - up of compound fertilizer plants is expected to decline. The market trading sentiment has weakened, and production enterprises have accumulated inventory. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range [3] Polyolefins - The main contract of polyolefin futures closed down. The polyethylene production enterprises had concentrated maintenance, but the social inventory pressure remained, and the supply did not improve significantly. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the support for raw materials was limited. The demand side of polypropylene was weak, and the export of downstream products was affected by overseas tariffs. The supply - demand situation provided limited support [4] Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures closed down. The domestic production increased as some maintenance devices restarted, and the port inventory was expected to rise slightly. Downstream factories were less willing to accept high - priced goods and maintained a rigid demand replenishment rhythm [6] Polyester - PX: The supply - demand situation weakened, and the valuation was under pressure [7] - PTA: There are large - scale maintenance plans in June, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. In the long - term, there are pressures of supply increase and demand weakening [7] - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term supply - demand situation is good, but there will be pressure after the long - term device maintenance restarts [7] - Short - fiber: The processing margin repairs slowly, and attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side [7] - Bottle chips: It is in the peak demand season, with stable inventory and low - running processing margins. If production cuts are implemented, the processing margin repair can be considered [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC: It continued to weaken. The production was at a relatively high level, and the domestic demand was flat. The export is expected to weaken, and the cost support was not obvious. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8] - Caustic Soda: It was weakly running. The downstream inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply continued to be under high pressure, and the futures price was under pressure at a high level [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There were rumors of cold - repair of production lines in Hubei, and the price was strong during the session but still weak overall. The inventory pressure was high, and the downstream orders improved but were still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to operate cautiously [9] - Soda Ash: It was weakly running. The inventory decreased on Monday but was still high. The supply is expected to increase again in June. Attention should be paid to the changes in the photovoltaic and float glass industries [9]