Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent average daily trading volume is less than 600,000 tons, and the comprehensive price is approaching the expected bottom range [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative market demands emerged, the market trading heat increased significantly, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - Currently, the release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is less than 20%, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 showed significant declines, while CEA22 had a slight rebound. The listed volume was 206,000 tons, and the bulk volume was 200,000 tons [3] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 30,000 tons, and the average trading price was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03% [3] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, market demand increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - The release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is low, there is potential selling pressure, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The selling time of surplus enterprises affects the price bottom and rebound height. If the daily trading volume increases, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Data Tables - CEA price and trading volume data for different years are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading amounts [7][8][9] - CCER trading information shows an average trading price of 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03%, a trading volume of 30,000 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 185,910 tons [9]
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第83期)-20250527
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-27 13:09