国投期货有色金属日报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium in the market with poor operability and a recommendation to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, same as aluminum, a short - term equilibrium state with low operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited trading floor operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and trade frictions. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated with limited price movement. The SMM spot copper price was 78,515 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium dropped to 150 yuan, and the Guangdong premium remained at 220 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still below 1,000 yuan. Hold short positions in the 2507 contract [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. The East China spot premium remained at 90 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 23,000 tons and 1,000 tons respectively compared to last Thursday. The demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction, but the inventory has smoothly decreased to a low level. Shanghai aluminum continues to test the resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. The Guinea -停产 mining area has a long - term shutdown risk, but the impact is less likely to expand. The short - term spot is tight, but the supply elasticity is large after the industry profit recovers. The Guinea ore has support above $70, and it is not advisable to chase short after the futures discount widens [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc once soared due to the news of a possible shutdown of a smelter in Hechi and then回调. The SMM 0 zinc price was 22,730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. The spot in Guangdong is a bit tight, and downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices. The TC in June continued to rise. At the end of the peak season, the pressure of weakening domestic and foreign demand is large. Zinc is mainly a short - position allocation [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The traditional consumption peak season is coming to an end. The stainless - steel supply remains high, and the market transaction is still light. The inventory of nickel - iron increased by 900 tons to 29,600 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 974,000 tons. Short - position investors can consider entering the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin retraced its intraday gains and closed down. The spot tin price slightly rose to 264,800 yuan. Adopt a short - position strategy [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 132,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 600 tons to 41,000 tons, and the smelter inventory increased by 50 tons to 57,000 tons. The downstream restocking willingness is poor, and the upstream has passive restocking. The Australian ore price has fallen nearly 20% in the past two months. The mid - stream production is basically stable. Short - position investors can consider taking profits [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures increased positions significantly, and the price continued to decline, closing at 7,440 yuan/ton. The spot prices of all grades decreased. The supply - side pressure continues to accumulate, and the demand - side performance is weak. The cost - side support is continuously weakening, and the silicon price is expected to continue to decline [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon recovered part of its intraday losses and rebounded above the cost line of 35,000 yuan/ton. The average price of the SMM re - feed material was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. In May, the supply - demand was nearly balanced but did not turn into a de - stocking trend. In June, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decline slightly. The price may have a short - term rebound but is expected to remain weak [11]