国投期货能源日报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market's short-term support and medium-term easing pressure coexist, and the market driver may switch to the medium-term logic. The focus may return to the supply and demand side, and the oil price may show a weakening and oscillating trend around the OPEC+ meeting on May 31 [2] - For fuel oil, the high-sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the low-sulfur fuel oil's unilateral trend follows the crude oil [2] - The supply of asphalt in June is relatively abundant, the overall inventory is in a destocking state but the destocking intensity has slowed down, and the cracking spread lacks the driving force to rise further before the demand improves substantially [3] - The overseas LPG market supply is abundant and weakens as a whole, the domestic market is mainly selling at reduced prices, the short-term fundamental improvement power is limited, and the market runs weakly [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The short-term support and medium-term easing pressure of the crude oil market coexist, and the market driver may switch to the medium-term logic [2] - The US-Iran nuclear talks on Friday did not reach an agreement, but positive signals were released, and the extreme scenario of negotiation breakdown was avoided [2] - Last week, crude oil inventories increased, refined oil inventories decreased, and the overall petroleum inventory increased by 1.1%. The inventory accumulation pressure still exists under the OPEC+ production increase path, and the oil price may show a weakening and oscillating trend around the OPEC+ meeting on May 31 [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Among today's oil product futures, only FU declined [2] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has seasonal support, but the demand boost is limited, the Russian fuel oil weekly shipping volume shows a low-level recovery trend, and the FU cracking spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, affected by the sulfur limit regulations in the Mediterranean and the strengthening of the east-west price difference, the western arbitrage cargoes of low-sulfur fuel oil increased in May, the domestic port bonded inventory is also at a high level in the same period, and the unilateral trend follows the crude oil [2] Asphalt - The domestic refineries plan to produce 2.31 million tons in June, a year-on-year increase of 300,000 tons (+14.4%), and the supply is relatively abundant [3] - The rigid demand in the northern market has improved, while the demand in the southern market is still affected by the rainy weather. The weekly asphalt shipment volume in the country is in a seasonal improvement state but still lower than the same period last year [3] - The overall asphalt inventory level is still in a destocking state, but the destocking intensity has slowed down. The BU cracking spread has shown pressure after rising to the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and it lacks the driving force to rise further before the demand improves substantially [3] LPG - The overseas LPG market supply is abundant and weakens as a whole, the arrival cost still has a downward trend [4] - Last week, the domestic terminal storage capacity utilization rate was still at a relatively high level, downstream procurement was cautious, and the domestic market was mainly selling at reduced prices [4] - The chemical profit margin continues to increase, but the propane-naphtha price difference is currently high, which restricts the recovery space of chemical demand, and the short-term fundamental improvement power is limited. The spot market remains weak, and the market runs weakly due to the increasing downward pressure from crude oil [4]