东南亚国别观察2025第一期，“抢出口”显著

Economic Trends - Vietnam's GDP growth rate is 6.9%, maintaining stability despite a slight decline compared to 2024's average[19] - Indonesia's economic growth has slowed to 4.87%, the lowest since March 2021, with investment growth at 3.79%[11] - Thailand's economic growth is steady at 3.1%, although consumer confidence has dropped to a seven-month low[18] Export Dynamics - Vietnam's exports surged by 21.0% in April, with imports growing at 21.8%, indicating a significant "export grab" during the tariff pause[24] - Malaysia's exports increased by 16.5% in April, reflecting a similar "export grab" effect due to the tariff adjustments[42] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. reached over $12 billion in April, marking a new high since 2013, with a 32.1% share of total exports[24] Market Performance - Southeast Asian stock markets have largely recovered from the "equal tariff" impact, with Vietnam and Indonesia showing better performance compared to Malaysia and Thailand[54] - As of May 23, Indonesia's stock index has decreased by 1.2% year-to-date, while Thailand's index has dropped over 16%[61][62] Foreign Investment - Vietnam attracted$ 13.82 billion in foreign direct investment in April, a 39.9% increase year-on-year, with manufacturing receiving $8.9 billion, accounting for 64.6% of total investments[34] - Indonesia's foreign investment inflow fell to$ 3.74 billion in Q1, the lowest since Q3 2020, with significant declines from Singapore and the U.S.[14] Policy Adjustments - Vietnam and Malaysia are increasing support for the semiconductor industry, while Thailand is enhancing policies for SMEs and foreign investment[80] - Thailand is revising foreign ownership laws to attract more foreign investment, allowing foreign entities to exceed the 49% ownership cap under certain conditions[85]