【粤开宏观】“十五五”时期中国财政政策展望：财政政策转型的必要性与可能路径

Group 1: Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7% during the same period[7] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3%[7] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income support increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[9] Group 2: Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term fiscal risks, with a consistent deficit rate below 3% reflecting a balanced fiscal approach[11] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the macro tax burden needing stabilization as general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP fell to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points since 2013[17] - The fiscal expenditure structure requires optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support, leading to potential demand deficiencies[19] Group 3: Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Transition from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to better support economic stability[21] - Fiscal policy objectives should balance short-term economic stability with long-term systemic challenges, addressing issues like population aging and digital economy risks[23] - Shift focus from income policies to expenditure policies, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal measures[28]