6月流动性展望：资金利率见底了么？

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Rates - Since May, policy interest rates have been lowered, leading to a further easing of liquidity, but after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, funding rates have risen[3] - In May, the average funding rates R007 and DR007 decreased by 16.1 basis points and 14.5 basis points to 1.61% and 1.58% respectively[11] - The central bank's operations included a net liquidity injection of approximately 1 trillion yuan following the RRR cut, but funding rates did not decline further[13] Group 2: Government Debt Issuance - In June, the government is expected to issue approximately 1.38 trillion yuan in treasury bonds, with a net financing scale of around 490 billion yuan[34] - The total issuance of government bonds in June is projected to be nearly 2.3 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of about 920 billion yuan[42] - The cumulative net financing progress of treasury bonds has reached 40.1%, significantly higher than the historical average for the same period[33] Group 3: Local Government Debt and Financing - Local government debt issuance has been slower, with a total of 1.98 trillion yuan issued in the first five months of the year, which is above last year's pace but below the five-year average[40] - In June, local government debt issuance is expected to total around 9 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of approximately 4.3 billion yuan[42] - Special refinancing bonds issuance is projected to be around 400 billion yuan in June, as issuance slows to accommodate special treasury bonds[42]