Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2025-05-27 14:58Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The international oil prices have seen a decline, with Brent crude settling at approximately $64.78 per barrel, down 1.16% week-over-week, and WTI crude at about $61.53 per barrel, down 1.85% week-over-week [18][20] - Despite a projected increase in U.S. crude oil production over the next two years, international oil prices are expected to remain stable at mid-high levels, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [29] - The North American active rig count has decreased week-over-week, with a notable year-over-year decline, indicating potential growth in the oil service sector [30] - The refining sector shows signs of recovery, with significant price differentials for products like gasoline and ethylene, suggesting improved performance for refining companies [34] - Polyester market dynamics indicate a recovery potential for long filament enterprises, with an increase in POY price differentials and overall inventory levels rising [42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC petrochemical sector declined by approximately 0.18% during the week of May 19-23, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.39 percentage points [15] - Key stocks that led the gains included Bohui Co., Huajin Co., and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, while stocks like Runbei Hangke and Meihua Shihua saw declines [16][17] Upstream Oil & Gas Sector - The report highlights that U.S. crude oil production is expected to reach 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and nearly 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating a robust supply outlook [31] - The report suggests monitoring companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil for potential investment opportunities [29] Oil Service Sector - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in North America, with a year-over-year drop of 34 rigs, while global drilling platform numbers are expected to have room for growth [30] - Companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering are recommended for investment consideration [30] Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have seen slight increases, with gasoline prices rising by approximately 19 RMB/ton and diesel prices by about 131 RMB/ton [34] - The report indicates a significant recovery potential for refining companies, particularly those actively planning new capacities [34] Terminal Polyester Sector - The report indicates that the POY price differential has increased by approximately 14 RMB/ton, suggesting a recovery potential for long filament companies [42] - Companies like Xinfengming and Tongkun Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [42] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes within the petrochemical sector, including the focus on energy central enterprises, growth in upstream capital expenditures, accelerated resource development in Xinjiang, and new capacity planning by refining companies [54]