2025年地方债投资一本通（下）

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the second part of the "Local Debt Investment Guide" series, analyzing local debt investment value from liquidity, special terms, and institutional behavior perspectives [3] - Local debt market shows characteristics in three dimensions: new and short - term bonds are more liquid, long - term funds target ultra - long - term bonds, and bonds with early repayment terms face liquidity discounts [3] Group 2: Liquidity Characteristics Overall Liquidity - Local debt liquidity is lower than that of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds, with high - liquidity bonds being scarce. The average liquidity index of local government bonds on December 31, 2024, was 0.2116, compared to 0.6970 for treasury bonds and 0.65231 for policy - bank bonds [16][17] - High - scoring bonds in terms of bond characteristic factors are scarce, similar to the distribution of liquidity indicators [18] Factors Affecting Liquidity - Newly issued, short - term, and large - scale local bonds have stronger liquidity. Newly issued bonds (issued within 10% of the term) had an average liquidity index of 0.3176 on December 31, 2024, 50% higher than the overall average [24] - Short - term bonds (1 - 5 years) have higher turnover rates. All types of local bonds have the highest turnover rate at T + 0 [31][32] - Bonds with larger issuance amounts have better liquidity. Bonds with an issuance amount over 400 billion yuan had the highest turnover rate at T + 0 [38][47] - General bonds usually have stronger liquidity than special bonds. Newly issued general bonds and newly issued special bonds maintained a liquidity above 0.2 in the first 40% of the bond's life [49] Regional Liquidity - Economic strength affects local debt liquidity. Economically developed regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Shanghai have leading liquidity [59] Group 3: Special Terms - Early Repayment Clause Issuance - The issuance of local government bonds with early repayment clauses has been increasing since 2018, peaking in 2022. Most of these bonds are newly issued special bonds [62][63] Pricing - The early repayment clause has no significant impact on primary - market pricing. However, in the secondary market, the yield of bonds with this clause is over - estimated [67][71] Liquidity - Bonds with early repayment clauses have lower liquidity on average (0.1817) compared to the overall average (0.2116). But some specific types of such bonds have relatively strong liquidity [87][90] Valuation - The valuation yield of bonds with early repayment clauses is generally lower than that of ordinary bonds, but there are exceptions [93] Group 4: Institutional Behavior Strategy Differentiation - Insurance companies are the main buyers of ultra - long - term bonds, aiming to match their liability duration. In 2024, they net - bought 14232.11 billion yuan of local bonds, mainly in the ultra - long - term [99] - Rural commercial banks focus on 5 - 10 - year bonds to capture trading opportunities. Fund companies and products net - bought 1150.92 billion yuan in 2024, mainly in 15 - 20 - year bonds [6][99] Market Impact - Large commercial banks resell bonds in the secondary market after purchasing them in the primary market, forming a market transmission chain [6] - Wealth management companies and funds have increased their holdings in recent years, especially in bonds with early repayment clauses during interest - rate decline cycles [6]