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“大美丽法案”初探
Orient Securities·2025-05-28 00:15

Legislative Developments - The "One Big Beautiful Tax Cut" bill was passed by the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 215 votes in favor and 214 against, with all Democrats and two Republicans opposing it[14] - The bill is projected to increase the deficit by $3-4 trillion over the next 10 years, with $1 trillion in spending cuts and $4-5 trillion in tax reductions[19] Key Provisions - The bill includes tax reforms such as extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions, reducing medical and food assistance, and increasing military spending[15][18] - It proposes to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, allowing for increased government borrowing[19] Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices declining by 2.47% and 2.61% respectively during the week of May 17-24, 2025[6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, reflecting ongoing concerns about debt demand and inflation[6] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global PMI for May showed better-than-expected expansion, with manufacturing and services PMIs both at 52.3, indicating economic resilience despite tariff risks[31] - Natural gas prices surged by 11.16%, contributing to a general increase in commodity prices, while Bitcoin rose by 3.78%[6] Risks and Uncertainties - Economic fundamentals remain uncertain, with potential for a hard landing if employment and consumption metrics deteriorate significantly[34] - Policy uncertainties persist, particularly regarding the Trump administration's fiscal strategies and potential changes in tariff negotiations[34]