美国5月消费者信心指数上升，4月份规上工企利润增速3%

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].