Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall Market: The domestic commodity market is weak, and overseas trade negotiations have a fluctuating impact on market sentiment. The economic slowdown risk and its impact on the market need to be noted under the repeated trade situation. - Copper: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. In the short - term, supply disruptions may cause the copper price to rise, and the futures spread may widen. In the medium - term, economic slowdown risk should be monitored [2]. - Aluminum: The low inventory of aluminum provides strong support, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the futures spread likely to widen [4]. - Lead: The decline in recycled lead production may deepen the downward space of lead price if the scrap price drops further [5]. - Zinc: The supply of zinc concentrate is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk with the accumulation of social inventory [7]. - Tin: The supply of tin is expected to loosen, and the lack of significant growth in terminal orders may cause the tin price to decline [8][9]. - Nickel: The short - term fundamentals of nickel have slightly improved, but the overall situation is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [12]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern due to weak demand and cost support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.19% to $9596/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78100 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2575 to 162150 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.5 million tons. - Supply - demand: Raw material supply is tight, and the short - term supply disruption may push up the price. The reference range for SHFE copper is 77600 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is $9500 - 9700/ton [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.69% to $2483/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20180 yuan/ton. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 5.7 million tons, and the three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly by 0.1 to 41.4 million tons. - Supply - demand: Low inventory supports the price, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is $2440 - 2500/ton [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.15% to 16818 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 3.73 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. - Supply - demand: The decline in recycled lead production may lead to a further decline in lead price [5]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.51% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2691.5/ton. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. - Supply - demand: The supply of zinc concentrate is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk [7]. Tin - Price: Tin price oscillated narrowly. - Inventory: SMM three - place inventory increased by 374 to 10333 tons. - Supply - demand: The supply and demand of tin are both weak. The supply is expected to loosen, and the lack of order growth may cause the price to decline. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31000 - 33000/ton [8][9]. Nickel - Price: Nickel price oscillated weakly. - Supply - demand: The supply of refined nickel is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall situation is bearish. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 0.34%, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.36%. - Supply - demand: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly. The reference range for the LC2507 contract is 60220 - 61620 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 1.34% to 3015 yuan/ton. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.69 to 14.35 million tons. - Supply - demand: The over - capacity pattern remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12855 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 4510 to 134611 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.85% to 111.77 million tons. - Supply - demand: The market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern due to weak demand and cost support [16].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250528
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-28 00:52