Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider short - selling on rallies for small and medium - cap indexes [10]. - For treasury bond futures, adopt a volatile mindset and mainly stay on the sidelines [11]. - For the European container shipping line, the previous market trading momentum has been released, and now focus on the implementation of the price increase announcement for European line freight rates. The 08 contract may be more elastic in the peak - season contracts but will consolidate in the short - term following the spot trend [12]. - For cotton, the short - term downstream demand expectation is enhanced, which is beneficial for the raw material procurement and boosts the cotton price to rebound, but the expected pressure still exists [14]. - For sugar, the supply is temporarily abundant, and there is uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap, so the sugar price fluctuates [16]. - For eggs, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the spot price has limited upward momentum, and the egg price is expected to face significant pressure in June. It is recommended to short the egg 07 contract on rallies [19]. - For apples, it is recommended to mainly conduct light - position positive spreads [20]. - For red dates, appropriately reduce short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production areas [20]. - For live pigs, the spot price is running weakly. The policy restricting second - fattening over the weekend further exacerbates the negative impact on short - term prices. It is recommended to short near - month contracts [21]. - For crude oil, in the long - term, the supply side is expected to increase production, and the demand side may be affected by the weakening global economy. The price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [22]. - For fuel oil, the unilateral price will follow the oil price, and it is stronger than crude oil [23]. - For plastics, L and PP are currently weak. Consider a rebound after the price further drops, and in the long - term, they are still recommended for short - position allocation. Consider a long - position allocation for the 9 - 1 inter - month spread [24]. - For rubber, the macro improvement may boost the short - term demand for dark - colored rubber, but the supply pressure and weakening far - month demand may gradually emerge. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [26]. - For methanol, do not chase short positions in the short - term. After a rebound, it is still recommended for short - position allocation [27]. - For caustic soda, the futures market has a pessimistic expectation for future demand, while the spot is short - term strong, but the continuous upward momentum may be limited [28]. - For soda ash and glass, the supply pressure of soda ash increases, and the price is still weak. The glass may fluctuate in the short - term, and if the supply does not substantially decrease, the price is still prone to fall [29]. - For asphalt, the futures basis converges, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and approach 3400 [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies [33]. - For pulp, pay attention to the impact of macro sentiment. The fundamentals are short - term volatile. Sell call options at high prices to reduce holding costs or increase sales profits [34]. - For logs, pay attention to the impact of funds and macro sentiment. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile market [35]. - For urea, the futures are expected to run weakly in the short - term until there is a new positive factor on the export side [36]. - For synthetic rubber, the cis - butadiene rubber is under obvious pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [37]. - For aluminum and alumina, aluminum is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended for short - term range trading. Alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [38]. - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - position mindset before there is an effective supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, the near - month contract has a basis - repair motivation, but the upward space is limited [39]. - For coal and coke, it is expected to continue to run weakly and volatile in the short - term [43]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices and hold short positions in ferromanganese [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro Information - In April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries such as equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly [8]. - As of the end of April, China's public - offering fund assets under management totaled 33.12 trillion yuan, a record high [8]. - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th [8]. - The US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, with the core capital goods orders falling by 1.3% month - on - month [9]. - The yield of Japan's ultra - long - term government bonds dropped significantly on Tuesday, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance may adjust the bond issuance plan [9]. Futures Strategies Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider short - selling on rallies for small and medium - cap indexes [10]. - Reason: The profit growth of industrial enterprises from January to April was basically in line with expectations. The market may consolidate in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Adopt a volatile mindset and mainly stay on the sidelines [11]. - Reason: The capital market is balanced and loose, but the bond market is weak due to factors such as the increase in CD rates and market concerns about sales pressure and fund redemptions [11]. Commodity Futures European Container Shipping Line - Future expectation: The previous trading momentum has been released, and now focus on the implementation of the price increase. The 08 contract may consolidate in the short - term [12]. - Fluctuation reason: The near - month contract follows the spot price towards the delivery logic, and the peak - season contract's price height needs to be verified [13]. Cotton - Logic and view: The short - term downstream demand expectation is enhanced, but the expected pressure still exists [14]. - Future view: Pay attention to the macro and supply - demand situation. The cotton price is under technical pressure and rebounds under pressure [15]. Sugar - Logic and view: The supply is temporarily abundant, and the sugar price fluctuates [16]. - Future view: The expected supply increase will suppress the sugar price. The domestic sugar price is resistant to decline before the import supplement is realized [17]. Eggs - View: Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the spot price has limited upward momentum. It is recommended to short the egg 07 contract on rallies [19]. - Future view: The egg price is expected to face significant pressure in June due to factors such as large supply and poor quality [19]. Apples - View: Mainly conduct light - position positive spreads [20]. - Future view: The apple price and sales volume are expected to be stable before the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production areas [20]. Red Dates - View: Appropriately reduce short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production areas [20]. - Future view: The market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price may fluctuate in the bottom range [20]. Live Pigs - View: The spot price is running weakly. Short near - month contracts [21]. - Future view: The supply is under double - negative pressure, and the demand may weaken seasonally. The spot price is expected to adjust weakly [21]. Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: OPEC+ plans to increase production in July, the result of the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain, and trade conflicts are frequent [22]. - Future view: The price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the long - term [22]. Fuel Oil - Fluctuation factor: The Brent oil price falls, and the fuel oil price follows the oil price. The supply from Iran is a risk factor [23]. - Future view: The fuel oil price will follow the oil price and is stronger than crude oil [23]. Plastics - View: L and PP are currently weak. Consider a rebound after the price further drops, and in the long - term, they are still recommended for short - position allocation [24]. - Future view: The short - term market sentiment improves, and the downstream export demand may increase briefly. Pay attention to the downstream replenishment after the price drop [24]. Rubber - View: The macro improvement may boost the short - term demand for dark - colored rubber, but the supply pressure and weakening far - month demand may gradually emerge. Sell out - of - the - money call options [26]. - Future view: The domestic raw material supply increases, and the spot - futures spread may shrink. Pay attention to international macro factors and downstream demand [26]. Methanol - View: Do not chase short positions in the short - term. After a rebound, it is still recommended for short - position allocation [27]. - Future view: The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is weak. The price is likely to weaken, but the probability of a sharp decline is small [27]. Caustic Soda - Market situation: The futures market is pessimistic about future demand, while the spot is short - term strong, but the continuous upward momentum may be limited [28]. - Future view: The futures price is in a discount state. The spot price may loosen after the alumina enterprise replenishment and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance [28]. Soda Ash and Glass - View: The supply pressure of soda ash increases, and the price is still weak. The glass may fluctuate in the short - term, and if the supply does not substantially decrease, the price is still prone to fall [29]. - Future view: The soda ash supply is high in the long - term, and the glass demand is not improved. Pay attention to the cold - repair news of glass production lines [31]. Asphalt - Fluctuation factor: The Brent oil price falls, and the asphalt price follows the oil price. The refinery output is lower than expected [32]. - Future view: The futures basis converges, and the price is expected to follow the oil price and approach 3400 [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - View: It is recommended to try shorting on rallies [33]. - Future view: The supply of PX and PTA is expected to increase slowly, and the downstream demand is average, putting pressure on the price [33]. Pulp - Logic and suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of macro sentiment. The fundamentals are short - term volatile. Sell call options at high prices to reduce holding costs or increase sales profits [34]. - Future view: The supply - demand situation is stable in the short - term. The future arrival volume is expected to recover in May and decrease slightly in June [34]. Logs - Logic and suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of funds and macro sentiment. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile market. Sell covered call options for short - term spot wheeling [35]. - Future view: The supply - demand situation is balanced in the short - term, and the inventory slightly increases. Pay attention to the entry of emotional funds near the delivery [36]. Urea - Market situation: The futures are expected to run weakly in the short - term until there is a new positive factor on the export side [36]. - Future view: The supply and demand are expected to strengthen, but there may be an oversupply situation under the current export policy [36]. Synthetic Rubber - View: The cis - butadiene rubber is under obvious pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Do not chase short positions at low points and consider shorting on rallies after the basis is repaired [37]. - Future view: Pay attention to device changes, inventory, and downstream procurement sentiment [37]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: Logic and view: It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended for short - term range trading [38]. Future view: The tariff impact still exists, but the demand is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [38]. - Alumina: Logic and view: The capacity is gradually recovering, and it is expected to be balanced in June. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [38]. Future view: The cost bottom is clear, but there is still an oversupply pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Maintain a short - position mindset before there is an effective supply reduction in the wet season [39]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract has a basis - repair motivation, but the upward space is limited. The supply is expected to increase in June [39]. Coal and Coke - View: The fundamentals have not substantially changed, and they are expected to continue to run weakly and volatile in the short - term [43]. - Future view: The iron - water output may decline, and the coke supply and demand are basically balanced [43]. Ferroalloys - View: Go long on ferrosilicon at low prices and hold short positions in ferromanganese [45]. - Fluctuation reason: The ferrosilicon price decreased due to possible technical trading or sentiment suppression, and the ferromanganese price had a narrow - range fluctuation [46].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250528
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-28 00:50