黑色板块日报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventories rose, social inventories continued to fall, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. The rumored production cuts have limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises think the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, prices have broken through the recent oscillation range downward. [3] - Iron Ore: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased last week, and the decline rate has widened. Iron - water output is higher than last year's level and peak. If production - limit policies are introduced, it will further suppress iron - ore demand. With the end of the downstream consumption peak, steel apparent demand has declined, and iron - water output is expected to fall further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventories is slowing, and the proportion of trade - mine inventories is high, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, futures prices have fallen significantly but are still within the recent oscillation range and may break downward under the influence of falling rebar prices. [5] 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Data: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have generally declined. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 is 2980 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力合约收盘价 is 3111 yuan/ton, down 2.84% from last week. [3] - Basis and Spread: The rebar主力基差 is 150 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力基差 is 89 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from last week. Different futures spreads also show certain changes. [3] - Production and Operation: The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.15%, down 0.47% from last week; the average daily iron - water volume is 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 59.74%, up 0.43%. National building - material steel mill rebar production is 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - roll production is 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of five major steel products is 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; rebar social inventory is 416.46 million tons, down 4.24% from last week; hot - roll social inventory is 263.27 million tons, down 2.26% from last week. Factory inventories of five major steel products are 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week. [3] - Trading Volume: The 7 - day moving average of the national building - steel trading volume is 15.91 million tons, down 17.28% from last week; the weekly terminal procurement volume of wire rods in Shanghai is 15,500 tons, down 11.93% from last week. [3] - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 41,975 tons, down 9,650 tons; the number of registered hot - roll warehouse receipts is 167,722 tons, down 75,934 tons. [3] Iron Ore - Price Data: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore主力 contract is 698.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.66% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined to different degrees. [5] - Basis and Spread: The DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 34 yuan/dry ton, down 2.0 yuan from last week; the 1 - 5 spread is 19 yuan/dry ton, down 3.5 yuan from last week. [5] - Supply - Side Data: Australian iron - ore shipments are 1771.1 million tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments are 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports is 1058.8 million tons, up 0.09% from last week. [5] - Inventory Data: The total port inventory is 13,987.83 million tons, down 1.26% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory is 9581.41 million tons, down 1.41% from last week. The total inventory of imported sintering powder ore of 64 sample steel mills is 1243.52 million tons, down 3.86% from last week. [5] - Production Data: The daily output of iron concentrate powder of 186 national sample mines is 50.09 million tons, up 0.42% from last week. [5] - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of iron - ore futures warehouse receipts is 1900 hands, down 400 hands. [5] Industry News China's 47 - port imported iron - ore inventory is 14,463.79 million tons, down 163.84 million tons from last Monday. From May 19th to May 25th, 2024, the total iron - ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 million tons, up 41.1 million tons from the previous period, showing a slight inventory - building trend, and the current inventory is at the maximum since the beginning of the year. [7]