镍、不锈钢：短期或延续震荡局面

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term nickel and stainless - steel market may continue to fluctuate. The current market has no obvious upward - driving logic. The supply of nickel ore is expected to increase, the price of ferronickel has stopped falling and rebounded, some stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia plan to cut production, and the new - energy link may strengthen. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Forecast and Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 13.79% and a historical percentile of 0.7% [2] - Inventory Management: When product sales prices may fall and inventory has impairment risks, short Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedging ratio) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) using the Shanghai nickel main contract and over - the - counter/on - exchange options to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines [2] - Procurement Management: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options using far - month Shanghai nickel contracts and over - the - counter/on - exchange options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] Market Analysis - Core Contradictions: The short - term market is in a narrow - range shock. The supply of nickel ore is expected to increase as the impact of the Philippine rainy season weakens. The price of ferronickel has stopped falling and may provide support. Some stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia plan to cut production, and the new - energy link may strengthen. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies [3] - Likely Positive Factors: A Sino - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, increased downstream procurement demand in the new - energy sector, and news of production cuts from some stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia [4] - Likely Negative Factors: The end of the Philippine rainy season leading to increased ore supply, high stainless - steel inventories with no obvious improvement in demand, and anti - dumping investigations launched by multiple stainless - steel trading countries [4] Market Data - Nickel Market Data: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 122,170 yuan/ton (unchanged), the trading volume is 52,308 lots (unchanged), the open interest is 29,331 lots (unchanged), and the number of warehouse receipts is 22,120 tons (- 0.58%). The LME nickel 3M price is 15,570 US dollars/ton (+ 0.19%) [5] - Stainless - Steel Market Data: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,855 yuan/ton (unchanged), the trading volume is 98,902 lots (unchanged), the open interest is 92,426 lots (unchanged), and the number of warehouse receipts is 134,611 tons (- 3.24%) [6] - Inventory Data: Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons (- 1,762 tons), LME nickel inventory is 199,998 tons (+ 1,362 tons), stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons (- 6.8 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons (+ 1,158 tons) [7]