渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.28）-20250528

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first four months of 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery [2] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, reflecting a decline in both volume and price [2] - The profit margin for the period was 4.87%, down 2.6% year-on-year, but the decline was narrower compared to the previous quarter, providing some support for enterprise profits [2][3] - Different types of enterprises showed varied profit growth, with private and joint-stock enterprises improving, while state-owned and foreign enterprises continued to decline [2][3] - Most of the 41 industrial categories saw positive profit growth, particularly in sectors like mining, food processing, and high-tech manufacturing, indicating strong support from "two new" policies [3] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds decreased, with a range of -3 BP to -1 BP, and the net financing amount turned positive [4][6] - The credit bond issuance scale increased, while corporate bonds had zero issuance, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4] - The overall credit bond market remains stable, with expectations of a downward trend in yields in the long term, suggesting a strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments [6] Industry Research - Significant transactions in the pharmaceutical sector were noted, with Sanofi and Pfizer reaching an agreement on a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody, indicating strong market activity [8][9] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 1.78% increase in the week of May 19-23, 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [8] - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical industry remains high, with a TTM P/E ratio of 27.44, reflecting a 146% premium over the CSI 300 [8] Metals Industry Research - Gold prices have rebounded due to expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, while lithium prices continue to decline due to oversupply [10][11] - The steel market is expected to lack upward momentum in the short term, influenced by demand and raw material cost trends [10] - The aluminum market may see price increases if demand grows due to export activities, while copper prices are anticipated to fluctuate without strong support [10]