工业硅：盘面再创新低，关注上游变动，多晶硅：临近交割月，盘面短期波动放大

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon futures price has reached a new low, and attention should be paid to upstream changes. The polysilicon futures price shows significant short - term fluctuations as it approaches the delivery month [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: - For industrial silicon Si2507, the closing price is 7,440 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan from T - 1, 470 yuan from T - 5, and 1,360 yuan from T - 22. The trading volume is 360,878 lots, and the open interest is 227,207 lots [1]. - For polysilicon PS2507, the closing price is 35,290 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan from T - 1 and down 335 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume is 191,734 lots, and the open interest is 80,800 lots [1]. - Basis and Spread: - The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract of industrial silicon is - 25 yuan/ton, and the cost of the spread trading strategy of buying the near - month and selling the continuous first is 47.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract of polysilicon is 2,350 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Price and Premium: - The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is + 1,085 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - investment material) is - 1,140 yuan/ton [1]. - Profit: - The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 3,957 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 7,152 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 5.1 yuan/kg [1]. - Inventory: - The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 58.2 million tons, and the enterprise inventory is 23.4 million tons. The total industry inventory is 81.6 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory is 32.3 million tons [1]. - The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon is 26.0 million tons [1]. - Raw Material Cost: - The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 420 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 375 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1,350 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 960 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Turkey's trade department has launched an anti - dumping investigation into solar panel junction boxes and aluminum frames produced in China, which was initiated by local Turkish enterprises. However, the specific names of Chinese enterprises involved in dumping were not specified [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a bearish view, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]