宝城期货甲醇早报-20250528

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly. In the short - term and mid - term, it will be in a volatile state, and the intraday view is volatile and weak. With the digestion of macro - positive factors, the methanol futures price is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and weak, and the reference view is weak operation. The core logic is the weak supply - demand structure which restricts the methanol rebound [1]. 3.2 Price and Drive Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is volatile and weak, and the mid - term view is volatile. The reference view is weak operation. The core logic is that after the digestion of macro - positive factors, the futures price is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Domestic coal - to - methanol plants are restarting, increasing supply pressure. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to inventory reduction. With the expected increase in imports, the future social inventory accumulation pressure will increase. Although the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday night with a slight increase of 0.45% to 2209 yuan/ton, it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.3 Remarks - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% decline is volatile and weak, 0 - 1% increase is volatile and strong, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise [3] - The volatile and strong/weak view is only for the intraday view, and no distinction is made for the short - term and mid - term [4]