格林大华期货早盘提示-20250528

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View - In the short - term, the futures price of urea will oscillate in the range of 1780 - 1860 yuan/ton. Although it is the agricultural demand peak season from May to June and the urea export policy has been implemented, the export volume is lower than market expectations, and relevant institutions are calling for stable prices. Yesterday, the low - price transactions in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan improved successively, and it is expected that the spot price will be slightly adjusted today [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2509 dropped by 3 yuan to 1814 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea in the central China's mainstream area remained stable at 1850 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 1047 lots to 173,300 lots, and short positions increased by 449 lots to 164,100 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry was 204,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 31,200 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate was 88.96%, an 8.89% increase compared with 80.07% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 917,400 tons, an increase of 100,200 tons from last week, a 12.26% month - on - month increase. The urea port inventory was 203,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 37.57%, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate of melamine was 66.4%, an 8.3% month - on - month decrease [1] - Export Policy: The relevant association will organize self - regulated urea exports on a fertilizer - year basis. The self - regulated export volume for this year (until April 2026) is about 2 million tons, and the export rhythm and time periods will be adjusted to ensure domestic market stability and prevent excessive concentration of exports [1] - Coal Price: On May 26, the global steam coal price dropped to a four - and - a - half - year low, only a quarter of the peak level during the 2022 global energy crisis, mainly due to continuous production growth and a surge in inventory [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]