宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The PX price and PXN bottom will be supported in the short - term, and PX will continue to destock in the next few months. The cost - side support for PX is acceptable, with Asian devices planning to increase loads and high开工 rates for PTA and polyester [2]. - The PTA market declined slightly. The delay in restarting a 225 - ton PTA device in the Northeast is expected to increase the destocking amplitude in June, strengthening the spot basis. PTA spot prices will mainly follow the cost - side in the short term [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market is weak, with supply being relatively loose and downstream buying intentions low [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a fluctuating manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Crude Oil: On May 27, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.89 per barrel, down 0.96% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.09 per barrel, down 1.00% [1]. - Naphtha and Xylene: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $567 per ton, up 0.15%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $701 per ton, down 0.64% [1]. - PX: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $840 per ton, up 0.80%. CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6706 yuan per ton, up 0.48% [1]. - PTA: CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4740 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4917 yuan per ton, up 0.86% [1]. - PR: CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6010 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5970 yuan per ton, down 1.00% [1]. - Fiber Products: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6490 yuan per ton, down 0.92%. The CCFEI price index of polyester bottle - grade chips was 5970 yuan per ton, down 1.00% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 79.18%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 79.28%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 90.81%, up 0.06%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 84.19%, unchanged; the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rate was 70.00%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 57.00%, up 21.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 54.00%, up 9.00%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 39.00%, down 26.00% [1]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20. A 2.25 - million - ton PTA device in the Northeast has postponed its restart [2]. Important News - The OPEC + meeting was advanced to May 31 to discuss increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day. Due to holidays, the trading in European and American markets was light [2]. - Although the supply tightened, the early recovery of some PX factories and the planned increase in loads of some devices led to a decrease in PX destocking. The polyester production - cut sentiment was strong, affecting market sentiment [2].