长江期货黑色产业日报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of rebar futures is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to potential supply - demand contradictions and lower cost centers [1]. - The iron ore 09 contract is viewed as oscillating in the near future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The coking coal market may continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand, coking enterprise profits, and imported coal supply [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and steel mill profit repair [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 140 (+4) [1]. - Last week, rebar apparent demand declined, production increased, and inventory depletion slowed. Demand is about to seasonally weaken, while steel mills have good profits and lack the willingness to cut production actively. The cost center of steel has shifted down due to falling raw material prices [1]. - Currently, the rebar futures price is below the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly under the background of low valuation [1]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures market was weak, affected by the decline in export heat and the slow decline of coal prices. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (-7), the Platts 62% index was 96.45 US dollars/ton (-1.2), and the monthly average was 99.50 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 76 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,913.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.94. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 243.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17 [1]. - There are more blast furnace overhauls recently, mainly in Hebei and Northeast China, and the overhaul time is long. The hot metal output may continue to decline, but the amplitude will not be large. The iron ore 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the near future [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in the main production areas maintain normal production, but some areas have phased production restrictions. The import volume at the Mongolian port remains low, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. With the increasing expectation of the second round of coke price cuts, the market risk - aversion sentiment intensifies, and the enthusiasm of coal washing enterprises for starting work is limited [3]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply - demand contradictions, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products, the profit repair of coking enterprises, and the change of imported coal supply [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, coking enterprises in the main production areas maintain a normal production rhythm, and some areas limit production due to narrowed profit margins, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable [3]. - In terms of inventory, most coking enterprises maintain low - inventory operation, but some resources face sales pressure due to the slowdown of steel mill procurement. There is a bargaining space in the market due to quality differentiation [3]. - In terms of demand, the scope of blast furnace overhauls in steel mills has expanded, and the rigid demand has declined marginally. Steel mills maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and mainstream steel mills have initiated the second round of price cuts [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products and the profit repair of steel mills [3]. Industry News - From May 19th to May 25th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.1 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [4]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners is 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators is 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines is 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [4]. - In April 2025, except for a slight increase in the procurement cost of steam coal, the procurement costs of other varieties decreased month - on - month, among which the procurement costs of coking coal, pulverized coal injection, domestic iron concentrate, and imported lump ore decreased significantly [4]. - The General Office of the Henan Provincial People's Government issued an implementation plan, aiming to complete about 500,000 vehicle scrap and replacement updates and more than 8 million home appliance trade - ins in 2025 [4]. - Guangxi adjusted the deed tax rates for individuals purchasing first - and second - home properties [4].