国新国证期货早报-20250528

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 27, A-share market indices declined: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3340.69, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.61% to 10029.11, and ChiNext Index decreased 0.68% to 1991.64. Trading volume was 9989 billion yuan, down 110 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 3839.40, down 20.71 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 27, Coke weighted index closed at 1365.2 yuan, down 12.8; Coking coal weighted index closed at 800.4 yuan, down 1.1. Coke's second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton is expected to take effect on Wednesday. Some steel mills'开工 declined slightly, downstream demand weakened, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure increased. Some coking coal prices dropped, reducing coke enterprises' costs. For coking coal, some mines had production cuts, online auction failure rate rose, and inventory accumulated. Mongolian 5 raw coal price dropped to 760 - 780 yuan/ton [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the holiday, US sugar market was closed on Monday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated on Tuesday, closing slightly higher, and slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. Analysts expect Brazil's mid - south region's May 1 - 15 sugarcane crushing volume to be 4060 million tons, down 9.9% year - on - year, and sugar production to be 229 million tons, down 11.5% year - on - year [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand may affect rubber tapping. Shanghai rubber rebounded on Tuesday and declined at night. In April 2025, global light - vehicle sales reached 7.32 million units, up 6% year - on - year [2]. Palm Oil - On May 27, palm oil rebounded at a low level. The main contract P2509 closed at 8044, up 1.13%. Malaysia's May 1 - 25 palm oil exports were 991702 tons, up 7.3% from the previous month. China's palm oil commercial inventory decreased to 360,000 tons, down 50,000 tons week - on - week [3][4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly on May 27. Trump postponed EU import tariff increase to July 9. As of May 25, 2025, US soybean planting rate was 76%, higher than 66% last year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 172 million tons. Domestically, on May 26, soybean meal futures rose. With more soybeans arriving, soybean inventory increased, oil mills' operating rate rose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. Short - term demand growth is limited [4]. Live Pigs - On May 27, live pig futures fluctuated at the bottom, closing at 13560 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but fresh pork sales are poor. In the long - term, the market supply is abundant, and the futures price is bearish [5]. Shanghai Copper - Trump's threat and rising US bond yields increased pressure on risk assets. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased 1.4% year - on - year. Although high copper prices weakened domestic demand, continuous inventory reduction supported the spot price [5]. Iron Ore - On May 27, iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.76% to 698.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, arrivals increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On May 27, asphalt 2507 contract rose 0.03% to 3516 yuan. Capacity utilization decreased, shipments increased, but supply may rise. With the rainy season in the south, demand may be suppressed, and prices will fluctuate [6]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13285 yuan/ton. On May 28, the lowest basis price was 680 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 23 lots [6]. Logs - On May 27, log 2507 contract opened at 764.5, closed at 755, with an increase of 159 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [6][8]. Steel - On May 27, rb2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3111 yuan/ton. With the rainy season approaching, building material demand may decline seasonally, and plate consumption will enter the off - season. The steel market faces oversupply, and prices will fluctuate weakly [8]. Alumina - On May 27, ao2509 closed at 3018 yuan/ton. Tight spot supply and inventory reduction supported prices, but concerns about bauxite supply eased and increased production capacity limited price increases. The market lacks a one - sided trend [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 27, al2507 closed at 20040 yuan/ton. Although there are tariff impacts, strong demand, supply disruptions, and low inventory may support prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. The market is in oversupply, demand growth is limited, supply may increase, and cost support is weakening. Prices will remain weak [9].