日本拟削减超长债发行，美国股债汇齐上扬

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, China's exports are supported by re - exports and the easing of Sino - US tariffs, but investment data in April weakened, especially in the real estate sector, and consumption was slightly pressured. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable in the future [2] - The long - term US Treasury yield continues to rise due to rating downgrades and fiscal expansion expectations, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The market is focusing on the Japanese 40 - year Treasury auction on Wednesday [3] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the follow - up, and stagflation allocation in the long term. Be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products, and the price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. The medium - term supply of energy is considered to be relatively loose [4] Content Summary by Directory Market Analysis - China's April economic data was mixed. Exports slightly exceeded expectations, investment weakened, fiscal revenue and expenditure increased, and consumption was under pressure. The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. Rating agencies maintained or upgraded Hong Kong's credit rating [2] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continued to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut this year is expected to be postponed to September. There are uncertainties in US - EU trade negotiations, and Japan is taking measures to deal with US tariffs [3] Commodity Market - For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs. The IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC + plans to increase production. The EU plans to ban imports of Russian gas, and there is an opportunity to go long on gold on dips [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] To - do News - Rating agencies maintained or upgraded Hong Kong's credit rating. The US may lower tariffs on some countries, and the trade agreement with India is close to completion. Japan is taking measures to deal with US tariffs, and may adjust the bond issuance plan. The market is waiting for the Japanese 40 - year Treasury auction, and OPEC + advanced the meeting date [7] Macroeconomic Data Charts - There are charts related to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city commodity housing transaction area, steel consumption, Sino - US Treasury yield spreads, US dollar exchange rates, and the interest - rate corridor [8]