西南期货早间评论-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. For example, it is bullish on the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures; it believes that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue and suggests considering going long on gold futures [8][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.26%, 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - Analysis: The current macro - economic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is still to be strengthened. The central bank carried out 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan. The current treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious as there is still uncertainty [5]. - Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.51%, 0.51%, 0.24%, and 0.10% respectively [7]. - Analysis: From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year. As of the end of April 2025, the net asset value of public funds managed by institutions reached 33.12 trillion yuan. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long - term due to low valuations and economic resilience [8][9]. - Strategy: Be bullish on the long - term performance and consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold closed at 771.6, down 0.73%, and the night - session closed at 770.7; the main contract of silver closed at 8,217, down 0.76%, and the night - session closed at 8249 [11]. - Analysis: In April, US durable goods orders had a significant decline. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold [11]. - Strategy: The long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to fall. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2900 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 2960 - 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 - 3220 yuan/ton [13]. - Analysis: The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining with over - capacity. The peak demand season is ending, and the price support may weaken. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to those of rebar. The current steel price valuation is low, but the futures have broken through the support level [13][14]. - Strategy: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [14][15]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 735 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 610 yuan/ton [16]. - Analysis: The daily output of molten iron remains high, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore decreased in the first quarter, imports increased significantly after April. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high among black - series products [16]. - Strategy: Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low. They can participate with a light position [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall [18]. - Analysis: The supply of coking coal is still abundant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. Although the steel mills' molten iron output is high, some mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The profit of coking enterprises has improved, but the spot price has started to decline again [18]. - Strategy: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [19][20]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon fell 1.23% to 5616 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon fell 1.73% to 5452 yuan/ton. The spot prices also declined [21]. - Analysis: The shipment of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The production of rebar increased slightly, but the demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The high inventory of ferroalloys exerts pressure on the market [21]. - Strategy: For ferromanganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low - level intervals; for ferrosilicon, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly, being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [23]. - Analysis: The CFTC data shows that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased for the fourth consecutive week. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [24]. - Strategy: The OPEC+ meeting is approaching, and there are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is suitable for short - term operations. Consider temporarily observing the main contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward, breaking through the moving - average group. The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil market eased, while the high - sulfur fuel - oil market continued to rise. The crack spread in the Asian fuel - oil market decreased [27]. - Analysis: The tariff friction is gradually being resolved, and global trade demand is recovering, which is positive for fuel - oil prices. However, the inventory in the ARA region has increased, which is negative for prices [28]. - Strategy: Consider short - selling the main contract of fuel oil [29]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.60%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [30]. - Analysis: The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost has declined. The processing loss of synthetic rubber has increased, the production capacity utilization rate is high, the demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [30]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate [31]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.87%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber rose 2.60%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at 14,350 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [32]. - Analysis: The market is still worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season. The supply is affected by rain, and the demand from tire enterprises may decline slightly. The social inventory is relatively high [32]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate [34]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell 1.58%, and the spot price decreased by 70 - 80 yuan/ton. The basis remained stable [35]. - Analysis: The short - term fundamentals have not changed much, mainly following the macro - sentiment. The supply is increasing, the export demand is good, but the domestic demand is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. - Strategy: It is expected to continue to fluctuate [37]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell 0.17%. The price in Shandong Linyi decreased to 1850 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [38]. - Analysis: The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released intensively. However, exports will be an incremental demand in the second half of the year, and the agricultural demand will start later. The domestic daily production is expected to remain at around 200,000 tons, and the inventory has increased [38][39]. - Strategy: If the price continues to fall, investors can consider going long. Pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 rose by 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [41]. - Analysis: The restart of maintenance devices and the delay of planned maintenance have increased the PX load to 78%. The import volume in April decreased. The international crude oil price is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting [41]. - Strategy: In the short term, the crude oil price fluctuates, and the supply - demand structure weakens slightly. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the change in crude oil prices and macro - policies, and control risks [41]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell by 0.17%. The spot price in East China was 4913 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.85% [42]. - Analysis: The restart of some devices has increased the PTA load to 77.1%. Some polyester devices have been overhauled, and the terminal orders have decreased. The cost support is insufficient [42]. - Strategy: In the short term, the supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak. It is advisable to operate within a range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell by 0.5% [43]. - Analysis: The restart and maintenance of ethylene - glycol devices are concurrent, and the overall operating load is 58.25%. The port inventory has decreased, and the planned arrival volume is also decreasing. The downstream polyester operating rate has decreased, but the demand has improved slightly [43]. - Strategy: In the short term, the supply of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [43]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2506 fell by 0.31% [44]. - Analysis: The operating load of short - fiber devices has increased to 96.2%. The downstream terminal demand has improved slightly, but the cost support is insufficient. The processing fee is being compressed, and there may be production cuts in the future [44]. - Strategy: In the short term, it will fluctuate following the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips 2506 rose by 0.1% [45]. - Analysis: The supply of polyester bottle - chip devices has increased to 84.3%, and the growth space may be limited. The downstream soft - drink consumption has continued to recover. The raw - material price is fluctuating, and the cost support has weakened [45][46]. - Strategy: In the future, it is expected to follow the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to raw - material price changes [46]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1231 yuan/ton, down 2.30% [47]. - Analysis: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the industry's operating load has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the new orders are poor, and some manufacturers have lowered their prices [47]. - Strategy: In the long - term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to reverse, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate steadily [47]. Glass - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1031 yuan/ton, up 1.18% [48]. - Analysis: Some production lines have resumed production, but the overall number of production lines has not changed much. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driving force, and the market price in North China has been low [48][49]. - Strategy: The market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [50]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 2449 yuan/ton, down 1.17% [51]. - Analysis: Some devices are under maintenance, and the production has increased slightly. The inventory is at a neutral level. The demand for caustic soda is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is still relatively loose. There are regional differences [51]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the operation of enterprise devices and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [51]. Pulp - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2507 closed at 5274 yuan/ton, down 2.77% [52]. - Analysis: A foreign pulp factory is preparing for annual maintenance. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated. The consumption is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [52][53]. - Strategy: The domestic supply is high, and the international supply is abundant. The price may rebound in the short - term due to tariff progress. Pay attention to the actual production cuts of international pulp mills and domestic consumption - stimulation policies [53]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.86% to 60,920 yuan/ton [54]. - Analysis: Sino - US trade has made positive progress, but the mine price has decreased, and the production rate has increased. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening during the traditional off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [54]. - Strategy: Before the large - scale clearance of mine production capacity, the price is difficult to reverse [54]. Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward, closing above the moving average. The spot price decreased, and the premium also decreased [55]. - Analysis: Sino - US tariffs are affecting the real economy, and the US refined - copper inventory is increasing. There is still uncertainty about copper tariffs, and the price may fall after rising [56]. - Strategy: Consider short - selling the main contract of Shanghai copper [57]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell by 0.4% to 264,290 yuan/ton [58]. - Analysis: A tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and the复产 expectation in Myanmar is increasing. The domestic processing fee is low, and the raw - material inventory of smelters is shrinking. The downstream production is good, and the inventory is decreasing. There is a game between the current shortage and the expected supply increase [58]. - Strategy: The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate downward [58]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell by 0.18% to 122,300 yuan/ton [59]. - Analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations have made new progress, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of nickel ore is expected to tighten, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream nickel - iron plants are suffering losses. The demand