黑色建材日报：市场情绪悲观，黑色震荡下行-20250528

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the black market is oscillating downward. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply disturbances, with glass showing strength and soda ash showing weakness on the futures market. The double-silicon market is weak due to low market sentiment [1][3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Analysis Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated upward yesterday with strong speculative sentiment. In the spot market, the shipment of manufacturers in the Shahe area was acceptable, the East China market was weakly sorted, most enterprises in the Central China region remained stable, the market price in the South China region was stable, the demand in the Northeast market was poor, the enterprise shipment was restricted, and the transaction in the Southwest region continued to slow down [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak oscillating downward trend yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices, and downstream buyers made appropriate purchases at low prices [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - The real estate completion data is still poor, leading to a pessimistic outlook for glass consumption. Currently, glass production is at a low level, downstream consumption is weak, short-term restocking cannot change the weak reality, and high inventory suppresses prices. In the short term, glass is under pressure, and future attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines and real estate data [1]. - With the successive implementation of new production projects, the high supply pressure of soda ash has emerged again. It is expected that the pressure to reduce inventory will be relatively large in the future, and prices will still be under pressure. Future attention should be paid to the intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Strategy - Glass is expected to oscillate, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly. There are no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2]. Group 4: Double - Silicon Analysis Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to decline yesterday, with a decline of 0.92%. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market was weak, with few factory quotes. The price of 6517 in the northern and southern markets was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, silicon manganese production is at a low level, with a slight week - on - week increase, and is generally at a low level in recent years. Currently, hot metal production remains at a high level in the same period, and the demand for silicon manganese is resilient. However, considering the strong expectation that hot metal production has peaked, it suppresses the futures market. High inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppress the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore has slightly increased from a low level, and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices has dragged down shipments, which supports the cost of alloys. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3]. - Silicon iron futures continued to be weak yesterday. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. Against the background of enterprise losses, silicon iron production has dropped to the lowest level in recent years. High hot metal production maintains the resilience of silicon iron demand, but the inventory reduction of manufacturers has become weak, and the inventory of downstream enterprises remains low. Silicon iron production capacity is relatively abundant, and short - term prices are dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to changes in electricity prices and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3]. Strategy - For silicon manganese, the near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of a low - level rebound in the far - month contracts. Silicon iron is expected to oscillate [4].