4月小客车轮胎出口下滑

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral [5] - BR is rated cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the rubber price is predicted to continue the oscillating trend due to the entanglement of long and short factors [5] - The contradiction of butadiene rubber lies in the upstream butadiene raw materials, and its price is more likely to fluctuate following the price of butadiene [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,495 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,915 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan-produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; Thai 20 standard rubber was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the ex-factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Transfar BR9000 was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Recent Market Information - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first four months of 2025 totaled 1.014 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Exports to China totaled 451,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 31% [2] - The ANRPC predicted that the global natural rubber production in April 2025 would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and the consumption would decrease by 1.3% to 1.248 million tons [2] - In April 2025, China's passenger car tire exports were 257,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.39% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.94%. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 1.0461 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.04% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On May 27, 2025, the RU basis was -95 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 25 yuan/ton (-25), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -6,495 yuan/ton (+5.29), and the NR basis was 95 yuan/ton (-46) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 68.90 Thai baht/kg (+0.61), Thai latex was 62.75 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (-0.70), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 10.65 Thai baht/kg (+0.70) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 62.09% (+2.21%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 73.74% (+2.53%) [3] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,342,455 tons (-13,072), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 614,584 tons (+395), the RU futures inventory was 199,540 tons (-730), and the NR futures inventory was 43,544 tons (-26,713) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On May 27, 2025, the BR basis was -45 yuan/ton (-100), the ex-factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 10,000 yuan/ton (-200), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Transfar BR9000 was 11,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -1,829 yuan/ton (-27) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high-cis butadiene rubber was 75.57% (-3.63%) [3] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,800 tons (+330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,000 tons (+350) [3] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance, as the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand lacks highlights, but there may be support from export rush orders [5] - For BR, maintain a cautiously bearish stance, as the price is more likely to fluctuate following the price of butadiene, and the supply and demand contradiction is not prominent [6]