新能源及有色金属日报：下游刚需采购为主，铅价暂时难有靓丽表现-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has shown a slight increase, but it is expected to lack sustained performance. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.65/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton, and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered discounts of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 150 - 140 yuan/ton to SHFE lead contracts 2506/2507 for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales, and holders offered discounts of 40 - 30 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, holders offered premiums of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead [2] Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,760 yuan/ton and closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,820 lots, an increase of 33 lots, and the open interest was 46,064 lots, an increase of 1,732 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,850 yuan/ton and a low of 16,745 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,765 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On May 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 292,375 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - The option strategy is to sell call options [4]