Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2. Report's Core View - After maintenance disturbances, zinc prices rose and then fell. The current strong consumption supports zinc prices to fluctuate at a high level, but consumption may face challenges in June, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline in consumption after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.55/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,730 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 55 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,690 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 35 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,730 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 55 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,185 yuan/ton and closed at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 343,177 lots, an increase of 200,438 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 121,568 lots, an increase of 3,048 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,695 yuan/ton and a low of 22,175 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 27, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 151,150 tons, a decrease of 2,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In the spot market, traders' supplies were tight, and concerns about the maintenance of smelters in South China pushed up the spot premium. However, downstream buyers were reluctant to buy at high prices, and the purchase enthusiasm was poor due to the supplement of imported supplies. A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacked sustainable momentum, and supply pressure pushed zinc prices back into the oscillation range [4] - Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but TC will continue to rise in June. Even at the current TC price, smelting is still profitable, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, so supply pressure persists. Domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and there is no condition for a short - term TC reduction [4]
新能源及有色金属日报：检修扰动后锌价冲高回落-20250528
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-28 02:24