新能源及有色金属日报：多晶硅仓单博弈仍在，关注平仓引发风险-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to weakened cost support, expected increase in supply, lackluster consumption, high industry inventory, and a large number of warehouse receipts, the short - term market has no bullish drivers, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. For polysilicon, as the first delivery approaches, the long - short game intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. The short - term supply pressure eases slightly, but downstream demand is sluggish, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to decline. The main contract 2507 opened at 7625 yuan/ton and closed at 7440 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton (-3.63%) from the previous settlement. The 2505 main - contract positions were 227,207 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 64,626 lots, a decrease of 287 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon dropped, and the basis strengthened recently. The organic silicon DMC quoted price remained stable, and the industry's operating rate is expected to decline further [1]. Supply and Demand - With the decline in raw material prices such as silicon coal and southwest electricity prices during the wet season, cost support has weakened. The supply side has significant over - capacity, with复产 expectations in the southwest and production restart plans for leading northwest enterprises. The consumer side is average, and the fundamentals are weak [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises should sell and hedge at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 fluctuated. It opened at 34,500 yuan/ton and closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from the previous day. The main - contract positions reached 80,800 lots, and the trading volume was 191,734 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [4][5][6]. Strategy - As the first delivery approaches, the long - short game in the market intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. In the short term, due to lack of demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to operate within a range, and be short - term cautiously bullish on single - side trading [7].