贵金属日报：短期震荡调整，中长期维持看涨-20250528

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the medium - to long - term trend of precious metals is bullish, while the short - term shows some fluctuations. Due to the high volatility of gold and the 90 - day tariff suspension observation period of external economies entering the second half, it is expected that there will be a period of volatility reduction and consolidation from the end of May to June. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities, but prices may remain in a high - level oscillation recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, precious metal prices adjusted. The U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets rose, indicating alleviated concerns about U.S. finances and improved risk appetite. Funds flowed back to the U.S. market, and concerns about U.S. tariffs on the EU eased. The U.S. consumer confidence index exceeded expectations. The gold 2506 contract closed at $3299.7 per ounce, down 1.27%; the U.S. silver 2507 contract closed at $33.385 per ounce, down 0.77%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 771.6 yuan per gram, down 1.27%; the SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8217 yuan per kilogram, down 0.64% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.2%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 76.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 22.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 0.5%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 38.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.5%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 11.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.2%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 922.46 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14217.5 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 31 tons to 988.3 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 91.8 tons to 1482.5 tons as of the week ending May 16 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - The Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted a rare "survey" of the bond market and considered reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, leading to a sharp rebound in Japanese bonds and improved demand for U.S. bonds. This week, key data to watch include the U.S. April PCE data and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index on Friday evening. The domestic market will be closed on Friday night due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Regarding events, at 08:00 on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 771.6 yuan per gram, down 0.73%; SGX gold TD is at 768.48 yuan per gram, down 0.7%; CME gold main contract is at $3327.4 per ounce, down 1.29%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8217 yuan per kilogram, down 0.76%; SGX silver TD is at 8189 yuan per kilogram, down 0.61%; CME silver main contract is at $33.385 per ounce, down 0.76% [7]. - Inventory and Holdings: SHFE gold inventory is 17247 kilograms (unchanged); CME gold inventory is 1206.4256 tons, down 0.021 tons. SHFE gold holdings are 204795 lots (unchanged); SPDR gold holdings are 922.46 tons (unchanged). SHFE silver inventory is 988.32 tons, up 30.94 tons, or 3.23%; CME silver inventory is 15467.857 tons, up 18.9066 tons, or 0.12%; SGX silver inventory is 1482.48 tons, down 91.86 tons, or - 5.83%. SHFE silver holdings are 364419 lots (unchanged); SLV silver holdings are 14217.50369 tons (unchanged) [13][16]. 3.5 Other Market Data - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview: The U.S. dollar index is at 99.5748, up 0.59%; the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1931, up 0.21%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 41603.07 points, down 0.61%. WTI crude oil spot is at $60.89 per barrel, down 0.96%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9614 per ton, up 0.99%. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.51%, down 0.66%; the 10 - year U.S. real interest rate is at 2.11%, down 3.21%; the 10 - 2 year U.S. Treasury yield spread is at 0.51%, down 5.56% [21].