宁证期货今日早评-20250528

Report Summary Core Views - The short - term pressure on crude oil is not significant, and the OPEC + policy in July should be monitored. Gold is under pressure and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Coke prices have weak support, and multiple rounds of price cuts are expected. Steel prices may oscillate weakly due to weak supply - demand and declining cost support. Iron ore prices may also oscillate weakly with balanced short - term supply and demand. [2][4][5] - The overall trend of the national pig price is strong, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change. Palm oil prices will oscillate, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended. Domestic soybean prices are expected to run steadily. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly with cost support. PTA may face over - capacity pressure in the long - term, and high - level chasing is not recommended. [6][8][9][10] - Silver is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. The bond market may oscillate slightly bearishly. Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Soda ash 09 contract will also oscillate in the short - term. Caustic soda 09 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term. [10][11][12][13] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - The implementation of OPEC + production increase was less than expected, so short - term pressure is not significant. It is in the OPEC + policy window period in July, and short - term trading is recommended. [2] Gold - Market expectations are that the US is more than 90% unlikely to cut interest rates in June. The US - EU tariff negotiation made progress, and the US dollar index rebounded, putting pressure on gold. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term. [2] Coke - Port inventories of coking coal and coke decreased. Coke prices have weak support. Steel mills have a strong expectation of price cuts, and the raw coal price decline provides room for coke price cuts. Two to three rounds of price cuts are expected this time, and there may be a fourth round if coal prices drop significantly in June. [4] Steel - Steel prices continued to decline. With the approaching rainy season and low real - estate new - construction willingness, the weak demand for steel in the off - season is difficult to change. The steel market may have weak supply and demand, and steel prices may oscillate weakly. [4] Iron Ore - Port inventories decreased, and the daily average port clearance volume increased. Iron ore supply decreased in the short - term, and demand pressure for steel enterprises to cut production passively is small. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and prices may oscillate weakly. [5] Pig - The national pig price is generally strong. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change near the end of the month. Light - position short - term long trading can be tried, and farmers can consider selling hedging according to the slaughter rhythm. [6] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil exports increased in May. The production increase rate decreased, and exports increased. The price will oscillate, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended. [6] Soybean - South American soybeans arriving at ports can meet processing needs. Farmers' willingness to sell is strong, but the market is quiet. Domestic soybean prices are expected to run steadily, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on soybean No. 1. [8] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are stable for glue and falling for cup - lump. Rubber prices are under pressure due to the expectation of zero - tariff between China and Thailand. However, there is cost support, and a weakly oscillating trend is expected. [9] PTA - PX supply is tight in the short - term but will increase marginally. PTA supply will increase slightly, and polyester inventory is high. In the long - term, over - capacity pressure will appear, and high - level chasing is not recommended. [10] Silver - US durable goods orders declined, and the economy is under downward pressure. The Fed's future interest - rate cut is uncertain. Silver is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. [10] Treasury Bonds - Industrial enterprise profits increased, which is beneficial to the stock market. The bond market logic is unclear, and a slightly bearish medium - term oscillation is expected. [11] Methanol - Coal prices are expected to be weak. Methanol production is expected to run at a high level, and downstream demand is stable. Port inventories may continue to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds. [12] Soda Ash - The price of heavy - soda ash is slowly declining. The start - up rate is slightly decreasing, and inventories are decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [12] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda plant start - up rate is high and stable. Enterprise inventories are decreasing. The 09 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds. [13]