煤焦早报：焦煤矿端供给收缩，空头减仓，反弹或临近-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock weakening", and for coking coal is also "shock weakening" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the economic data in April, the number of cities with rising real - estate prices decreased, and the time for housing prices to reach the bottom was postponed again. Industrial added - value decreased, and social financing data was mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the real - economy financing demand declining. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4]. - For coking coal, supply has started to shrink, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. The expectation of the second - round price cut for coke is strengthening, and it is expected to be implemented soon. Potential positive factors include supply - side production cuts and fiscal policy support [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine开工率 has declined, with the开工 rate of 523 mines at 86.3% (-2.96), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises at 75.18% (-0.05). The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in iron - water production [2]. Inventory - Upstream mines and coal - washing plants have accumulated inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises have reduced inventory. The inventory of 523 mines is 447.53 million tons (+37.08), and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 798.75 million tons (+7.54) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 970 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 799.5 yuan/ton (-0), the basis is 190.5 yuan/ton (+0), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -15.5 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.18% (-0.05), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.32% (-0.44), with the daily average iron - water output at 243.6 million tons (-1.17). The demand for coke has peaked [3]. Inventory - Coking enterprises have accumulated inventory, while steel mills and ports have reduced inventory. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 660.59 million tons (-3.21) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The spot price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1390 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1364 yuan/ton (-11), the basis is 131.87 yuan/ton (+11), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -24 yuan/ton (-8.5). The expectation of the second - round price cut is strengthening [3].