综合晨报-20250528

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices closed slightly lower overnight, with the Brent 07 contract down 0.8%. The market driver may shift to the medium - term logic. After the US - Iran nuclear talks on Friday, the focus may return to supply - demand. With inventory accumulation and OPEC+ production increase, oil prices may fluctuate weakly around the May 31 OPEC+ meeting [2] - Precious metals fell overnight. Gold is still bullish in the long - term, but currently in a volatile adjustment. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil's FU cracking spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. Low - sulfur fuel oil's unilateral trend follows crude oil, with weak supply - demand guidance [21] - In June, domestic asphalt refineries plan to produce 231 million tons, a 14.4% year - on - year increase. Demand shows seasonal improvement but is still lower year - on - year. The BU cracking spread is under pressure [22] - Overseas LPG supply is abundant and weakening. Domestic terminals have high inventory, and the short - term fundamentals have limited improvement power. The market runs weakly [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, Lun copper oscillated slightly. LME inventory continued to decline. Hold short positions in the second - half - year contracts [4] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. The market is in a strong - reality situation. Test the resistance at 20300 yuan. Consider selling on rallies if it breaks through [5] - Guinea's alumina mine production impact expansion is unlikely. Spot is tight in the short - term, but the long - term is pessimistic. Don't chase short positions [6] - SMM 0 zinc is at 22,730 yuan/ton. With the end of the peak season, zinc is mainly for short - allocation [7] - Shanghai lead is running weakly. Keep an eye on consumption performance in the future [8] - Nickel and stainless steel markets are weak. Nickel iron inventory increased by 900 tons, and pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons. Consider short - entry [9] - Tin prices oscillated lower. Continue the short - allocation idea [10] - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded. The market is waiting for supply - demand improvement. Short - sellers should take profit opportunistically [11] - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to decline. Supply pressure accumulates, and demand is weak. Silicon prices are expected to decline [12] - Polysilicon prices rebounded to above the cost line. In June, supply is expected to increase, and prices may run weakly [13] - Steel prices continued to decline overnight. In the off - season, demand is weak, and supply pressure is high. The market is bearish [14] - Iron ore prices oscillated weakly. Supply is in a seasonally strong stage, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate weakly [15] - Coke prices rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. Carbon supply is abundant, and pay attention to the negative feedback [16] - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. Supply is abundant, and don't be overly bearish [17] - Manganese silicon prices continued to decline. The fundamentals have slightly improved. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs [18] - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated narrowly. Demand is okay, and prices are still weak due to the black market [19] Group 3: Chemicals - Styrene supply increases, and inventory may rise slightly. Downstream demand is weak [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene markets are weak. Supply and demand support is limited [27] - PVC prices continue to weaken. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [28] - PX supply increases, and demand is expected to be low. PTA is in de - stocking. There is pressure on supply increase and demand weakening in the long - term [29] - Ethylene glycol's near - term supply - demand is good, but there will be pressure after June [30] - Short - fiber prices follow raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip production is increasing, and consider short - term processing margin repair [31] - Glass prices are weak. Inventory pressure is high, and supply is volatile. Be cautious [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and demand is slightly decreasing. Synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and inventory is increasing [33] - Urea futures lack upward momentum. The market oscillates weakly in the short - term [24] - Methanol supply is expected to increase significantly. The market runs weakly, and pay attention to the macro impact [25] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices are generally falling. Supply is loose, and there is no continuous upward driver [34] - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices oscillate. Supply is increasing, and they follow US soybean prices [35] - Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended to be long - biased. Rapeseed meal may be stronger [36] - Domestic soybeans oscillate. Import supply is abundant from May to July, and weather affects prices [37] - Corn prices may oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, and pay attention to inventory changes [38] - Live pig futures oscillate weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the medium - long term [39] - Egg futures fall sharply, and spot prices rebound. Egg prices may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival [40] - Cotton prices are affected by US - China relations. Inventory is decreasing, and consider option strategies [41] - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. Brazilian production is the focus, and domestic supply and demand are stable [42] - Apple prices are weak. Market focuses on new - season production estimates [43] - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season [44] - Pulp prices fall. Inventory is still high, and demand is weak. Consider buying on dips [45] Group 5: Others - The CCFI (European Line) may be at the end of the decline. The spot price is close to the central level. Pay attention to the peak - season price increase [20] - A - shares oscillated lower. With overseas risk preference rising, A - shares may oscillate more evenly in the short - term [46] - Treasury bond futures oscillate weakly. Directional strategies may not break through, and curve steepening needs data support [47]