新能源及有色金属日报：升贴水相对偏高，铜价震荡偏强-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The macro factors are changeable, and copper, an important resource with "quasi - gold" properties, is sought after by the market. With the expected relatively tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC price, the copper price is expected to remain in a pattern of rising easily and falling hard. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with an operating range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton. Arbitrage should be postponed, and for options, short put at 76,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On May 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,180 yuan/ton and closed at 78,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,160 yuan/ton and closed at 78,100 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase compared to the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: The spot premium declined again due to continuous arrival of imported copper and poor purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises. The premium of mainstream flat - copper was 120 - 140 yuan/ton, and that of good copper was 180 - 220 yuan/ton. With importers' shipments, the premium of some copper decreased. It is expected that imported copper will be shipped today, suppressing the overall spot premium, but the convergence of the spot premium is limited [2]. - Important Information Summaries: - Macro and Geopolitical: The US may lower tariffs on some countries to 10% or lower. Trump may impose new sanctions on Russia. The European Central Bank should postpone further interest - rate cuts until September [3]. - Economic Data: The US March FHFA house price index monthly rate was - 0.1%, the largest decline since August 2022. From January to April, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 2.11702 trillion yuan, a 1.4% year - on - year increase. Profits of different types of enterprises and industries showed different trends [3]. - Mine End: Patriot Resources acquired a high - grade copper deposit in Zambia, with an exploration target of 1.6 - 2.5 million tons of ore and an expected copper content of 32,000 - 62,500 tons. The Kamoa - Kakula mine's production and cost guidance and smelter capacity - ramp - up plan have been withdrawn for review [4]. - Smelting and Import: Antofagasta started the first - round negotiation of mid - year long - term contracts with Japanese smelters last week and will contact Chinese manufacturers. The Manyar smelter in Indonesia plans to produce the first batch of cathode copper in late June 2025 and reach full production in December. The supply growth of domestic refined copper is weak [5]. - Consumption: The high - level shock of copper prices has stimulated some downstream enterprises' restocking demand during price corrections. The overall consumption has improved, but most enterprises still purchase on - demand, and the market sentiment is cautious [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,800 tons to 162,150 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,128 tons to 34,961 tons. On May 26, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 139,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - Overall Operation: It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with an operating range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. - Arbitrage: Postpone [7]. - Options: Short put at 76,000 yuan/ton [7]. Data Table The table shows copper price and basis data, including spot (premium and discount), inventory, warehouse receipts, spreads, and arbitrage data for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [30][31].