原油日报：聚焦欧佩克会议-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term neutral for oil prices, medium - term bearish allocation [3] Core View - As the OPEC meeting approaches, the market is concerned about whether OPEC will announce further production increases in July. However, since OPEC announced accelerated production increases in April, Saudi Arabia's export volume has not increased, and it is urgent to clarify whether OPEC or Saudi Arabia has actually increased production [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 64 cents to $60.89 per barrel, a decline of 1.04%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 65 cents to $64.09 per barrel, a decline of 1.0%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.85% at 454 yuan per barrel [1] - Data released by the US Department of Commerce on the 27th showed that the preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders in April plunged 6.3%, with an expected value of - 7.8% and the previous value revised from 9.20% to 7.50%. Affected by the sharp decline in commercial aircraft orders, US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, and core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military hardware) fell 1.3%, the largest decline since last October [1] - Goldman Sachs: In the next two years, the oil production growth of shale oil projects in non - OPEC countries except Russia may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day. New natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may increase OPEC's liquefied natural gas production to an average of 200,000 barrels per day per year in the next two years. Lower oil prices in 2025 - 2026 (i.e., a short - term surplus) may lead to an earlier and lower peak in US shale oil production [1] - Iran set the price of light crude oil sold to the Asian market in June at a premium of $1.80 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [1] - Trump warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call not to take any actions that could endanger the negotiations between the US and Iran on a new nuclear deal. Israel has been preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if the US - Iran nuclear negotiations fail in the next few weeks. Netanyahu may order an attack without Trump's approval, but Trump emphasized that "other options" are also being considered and hopes to try diplomatic solutions first [1] Strategy - Short - term neutral for oil prices, medium - term bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: OPEC significantly increases production, macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply tightening of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]