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名创优品(09896):25Q1业绩点评:国内同店改善,海外维持高速增长
Huaan Securities·2025-05-28 03:03

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.9%. The gross margin was 44.2%, up by 0.8 percentage points. Operating profit was 710 million yuan, down 4.05% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was 590 million yuan, down 4.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.3%, down 3.3 percentage points [5] - The company expects revenues of 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 16%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 1%, 21%, and 21% respectively [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 2.5 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-over-year, with same-store sales improving from a high single-digit decline to a mid-single-digit decline. The company is shifting from rapid store expansion to a focus on high-quality growth, resulting in a net reduction of 111 stores [9] - Overseas revenue reached 1.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 30.3%, accounting for 36% of total revenue. The number of overseas stores increased to 3,213, with a net addition of 95 stores [9] - The company anticipates that as overseas operations become more refined, the net profit margin per store will have room for improvement despite initial pressure from upfront costs associated with rapid expansion [9] Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenues of 16.99 billion, 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion yuan for the years 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 23%, 21%, 19%, and 16% [10] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 2.72 billion, 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan for the same years, with adjusted net profit margins of 16%, 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [11]