KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-28 03:11Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is expected to stabilize due to improvements in supply-demand fundamentals, leading to a focus on coal allocation [6] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic coal production and imports, which is anticipated to support coal prices [3][4] - The upcoming summer peak demand is expected to drive electricity demand, while the demand from chemical, construction, and steel sectors remains resilient [4] Supply Side Summary - Domestic coal production decreased significantly in April 2025, with a total output of 39 million tons, down 11.6% from March [3][8] - Notable declines were observed in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, with production dropping by 23.8% and 20.6% respectively [10] - Import coal volumes continued to decline due to price discrepancies, with April imports down 16.4% year-on-year [3][12] Demand Side Summary - Anticipated high temperatures during the summer are expected to increase electricity demand, alleviating the negative growth trend in thermal power generation [4] - Non-electric demand remains strong, with high operating rates in coal chemical industries and resilient cement demand despite seasonal fluctuations [4][30] Inventory Summary - Port inventories in the Bohai Rim have been decreasing since mid-May, with coal stocks dropping to 31.4 million tons by May 27, 2025 [5][33] - The number of anchored vessels at ports has increased, indicating a recovery in market demand [5][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal sector investments due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, with specific recommendations for various coal companies [6][34] - Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal for stable investments, while companies like Yancoal and Jinneng Holding are highlighted for their potential upside [6][34]