中原期货晨会纪要-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets show complex trends. Stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 in the US have risen, while some commodity prices like COMEX gold and silver have fallen. In the domestic market, various commodities also present different price changes. Macroeconomic events, including international trade negotiations and domestic economic data releases, have an impact on market sentiment and price trends. Different sectors, such as agriculture, energy - chemical, and industrial metals, have their own supply - demand characteristics and price outlooks [2][6][7][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Tracking - Stock Indices: On May 28, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose by 740.58 points (1.78%) to 42343.65, the Nasdaq Index rose by 461.95 points (2.465%) to 19199.16, the S&P 500 rose by 118.72 points (2.046%) to 5921.54, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 99.66 points (0.428%) to 23381.99 [2]. - Commodity Futures: In the international market, COMEX gold fell by 1.727% to 3299.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell by 0.758% to 33.39 dollars/ounce. In the domestic market, for example, the price of gold fell by 0.117% to 770.70, and the price of silver rose by 0.389% to 8249.00 [2]. - Currency and Interest Rates: The SHIBOR overnight rate fell by 3.586% to 1.45, the dollar index fell by 0.085% to 99.53, and the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.19 [2]. 2. Macroeconomic News - International Trade: Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN - China - GCC Summit, emphasizing cooperation in multiple fields. The EU is seeking to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, and the US may lower tariffs on some countries. There are also expectations for the completion of trade agreements such as the China - GCC Free Trade Agreement [6]. - Domestic Economy: In April, the profits of China's large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 3% year - on - year, with new - kinetic - energy industries showing rapid profit growth. In May, the second - hand housing market in Guangzhou showed year - on - year growth [7]. - Consumer Confidence: In May, the US consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98, exceeding all economists' expectations [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: Affected by factors such as the busy farming season, the supply of peanut spot goods is low, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. However, the market lacks upward momentum, and it is not recommended to chase the high in the futures market [11]. - Oils and Fats: The US soybean planting rate is lower than expected, and the commodity market atmosphere is weak. The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - Sugar: The price of sugar futures is in the range of 5800 - 5850 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the 5850 - yuan pressure level, a small - position long position can be tried [11]. - Corn: The corn market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2340 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Pigs: The pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures contract is oscillating around 13500, waiting for a direction [13]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs is stable in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term due to factors such as high - age laying hens and weather [13]. 3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - Caustic Soda: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to run steadily in the short term, and the 2509 contract continues to run at a low level [13]. - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The UR2509 contract is expected to run in the range of 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Overseas tariff risks still exist, and the prices of copper and aluminum continue to oscillate and consolidate [13]. - Alumina: Affected by factors such as production capacity changes and supply disturbances, the 2509 contract of alumina rebounds from a low level, and attention should be paid to the pressure range of 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton [15]. - Black Series: Black series products such as steel and iron alloys are generally in a downward trend. It is not recommended to chase short positions in the short term [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is weak, and the second - round price cut of coke has been implemented. The prices of both continue to run weakly [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the 61500 - yuan pressure level, a small - position long position can be tried [15][16]. 3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: The A - share market shows weak upward momentum, and it is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities [18][19]. - Options: On May 28, it is the last trading day of the May contracts of ETF options on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle positions to bet on increased volatility after the decline in volatility [20].