黑色金属数据日报-20250528

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black metal market is currently in a state of weak price drive, with a strong expectation of oversupply. The core logic of the black metal sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply and the upstream's concession to the downstream, leading to a downward shift in the valuation center. Different sub - sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [4][5][7] Summary by Related Sections Steel - On May 27, the prices of both far - month and near - month steel futures contracts were down. The spot trade volume of building materials increased slightly, but the market was still weak. The static supply - demand structure is healthy, but there is a strong oversupply expectation. The price drive is weak, and the time for production reduction may be postponed. The idea of rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profit is still necessary [2][4] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the second round of price cuts for coking coal and coke is expected to land soon. The port metallurgical coke trade price and coking coal prices are falling. In the futures market, the black chain index continues to decline. The trading logic is that the upstream concedes to the downstream due to loose furnace material supply. A short - selling strategy is maintained, but attention should be paid to the cost and price relationship at the current position [5] Ferroalloys - There have been many production cut news for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese this week, with a significant decline in production. Ferrosilicon is in short supply and the rebound may continue, while silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate. The cost is expected to decline slightly. The pattern of overseas and domestic export rush will continue to drive actual demand. Previous long positions in ferrosilicon and long - short spreads of double - silicon can be held [7] Iron Ore - The market is less sensitive to the news of production restrictions. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate slightly in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, the steel mills' spontaneous production reduction may occur, and it is more likely that steel is weaker than iron ore [8] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Market: On May 27, the far - month contracts of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601 all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.31% to - 1.70%. The near - month contracts also declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.12% to - 1.76%. The cross - month spreads and various spreads/price ratios/profits also changed [2] - Spot Market: The spot prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all declined on May 27. The basis of different varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]