现货转弱，悲观情绪不改

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., but does not give a unified industry investment rating [5][6] Core View of the Report - The black market has seen continuous days of increased - position decline, with the spot market cautious and prices dropping. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak and export pessimism has intensified, if exports do not deteriorate significantly, the current industry supply - demand situation does not support a trend - based decline. The market trading logic has shifted to the domestic industry fundamentals, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Industry - Supply and Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the "rush for exports" is less than expected. Some blast furnaces are under maintenance, and hot metal production has declined from its peak. However, steel inventory pressure is not large this year compared to last year, and steel mill profits are acceptable. Overseas mine new - capacity increments are not obvious, and port inventories are continuously decreasing [1][2] - Market Outlook: If exports do not deteriorate significantly, the current industry supply - demand situation does not support a trend - based decline [1][2][5] Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Short - term supply increments are not obvious due to the slower - than - expected progress of overseas new projects, and the expected supply increment for the year will be adjusted downwards [2][6] - Demand: Steel enterprises have relatively little short - term passive production - reduction pressure [2][6] - Inventory: Port inventories are decreasing, and the total inventory has declined [2][6] - Market Outlook: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, but due to the marginal weakening of steel exports and the decline of hot metal production, the market is trading the industry's "negative feedback", and iron ore prices are under downward pressure. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate [2][6] Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines have reduced production due to accidents and maintenance, but most main - producing area coal mines maintain normal production, and coking coal production remains high and stable. Mongolian coal port inventories are continuously accumulating, and traders face large shipment pressures, so overall supply is sufficient [3][8] - Demand: Coke production is at a high level in the same period, but coke enterprises face increasing inventory - reduction pressure, low coking profits, and limited space for coke production increase [3][8] - Inventory: As the coke price reduction cycle begins, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal gradually increases [3][8] - Market Outlook: Supply pressure is difficult to resolve, and there is room for further decline in valuation. The futures price is expected to continue its weak trend [3][8] Coke - Supply: Coke enterprise profits have slightly shrunk, but upstream inventory pressure is acceptable, and the overall coke production level remains stable [6][7] - Demand: Hot metal production has declined from its peak, and terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, so hot metal production may further decline in the future [6][7] - Market Outlook: With stable upstream supply and weakening demand support, and cost - end drag, coke prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise. In the short term, the futures market is expected to remain weak [6][7] Alloys (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - Supply: There has been an increase in the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia recently, and production is expected to increase. As manganese ore shipments resume, port inventories of manganese ore are slowly rising [3][10][11] - Demand: Market sentiment remains cautious, and the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose [10][11] - Market Outlook: After the price decline, it is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [10][11] Silicon Iron - Supply: A large silicon - iron factory in Inner Mongolia has shut down some furnaces, and daily silicon - iron production has decreased [12] - Demand: Steel mill tenders in May have basically completed procurement, and terminal steel is about to enter the off - season. The market demand expectation remains cautious, and the demand in the magnesium metal market is weak [12] - Market Outlook: Supply and demand contradictions have eased, but there is still an expectation of cost loosening. The futures market is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term [12] Glass - Demand: Demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Spot production and sales have weakened [8] - Supply: Daily melting volume remains stable. Low prices suppress the willingness to resume production, and the willingness for cold repair is not obvious. Market rumors about environmental protection issues of Hubei production lines have led to a small rebound in the futures market [8] - Inventory: Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and mid - stream inventories have declined [8] - Market Outlook: Real - world demand faces certain pressure in the off - season, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The short - term view is to maintain oscillation [8] Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply pattern has not changed. Although there are many maintenance operations in May, some enterprises have resumed production, and supply pressure still exists [5][9] - Demand: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The overall daily melting volume of float glass fluctuates little, and there are still production lines being ignited in the photovoltaic industry, but the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting volume may not be sustainable [9] - Market Outlook: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will still decline in the long term [5][9] Steel - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products has decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the decline has further widened. Domestic demand is still weak, but the overall steel contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to the export demand situation [6] - Supply: Hot metal production is at a high level, and overall steel production has increased [6] - Market Outlook: The fundamentals have weakened month - on - month this week, and domestic off - season demand is still under pressure. However, overseas demand may be able to absorb the current high production after the export is no longer restricted by tariffs. The key lies in when exports will weaken. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Scrap Steel - Supply: The five - day average arrival volume has rebounded compared to last week and is at a relatively high level in the same period [6] - Demand: The daily consumption of electric furnaces has slightly increased, mainly in East and Southwest China. The hot metal production of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the cost - performance of scrap steel has decreased, so the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has decreased, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has slightly increased [6] - Inventory: After the arrival volume rebounded, the factory inventory has slightly increased and is higher than the same period [6] - Market Outlook: The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, finished - product prices are under pressure, and the loss of electric furnaces during off - peak hours has intensified. The future price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]