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铁矿石:黑色系集体下跌,铁矿石开始补跌
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-05-28 05:10

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term carbon element decline causes the collapse of finished product cost support, the expected export resilience weakens, and the overall valuation of the black - series drags down the iron ore price. Demand has basically peaked but with a low slope, supply is continuously rising but may maintain a year - on - year decrease. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term but still be affected by the sector [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic Yesterday, the black - series declined collectively, and iron ore started to make up for the decline. The reasons include the continuous weakness of carbon element prices leading to the collapse of finished product cost support, the lower - than - expected export rush during the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs and the entry of terminal demand into the off - season causing the overall valuation of the black - series to decline, and the high - level decline of hot metal weakening the spot support, shrinking the iron ore basis, and the simultaneous downward movement of futures and spot [3] Supply The current overseas ore shipment decreased month - on - month. Australia's shipment increased, Brazil's decreased, and non - mainstream shipments declined after a pulse. The overall year - on - year decline of overseas ore shipments is narrowing. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady and rising shipment, with the marginal support of the supply side weakening [3] Demand Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period. Hot metal has declined for two consecutive weeks, with this period at 243.6 (-1.17) and the decline rate expanding. Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export - end expectation is revised upward. It is expected that hot metal will show an overall high - level decline trend with a low downward slope, and the support for prices will weaken marginally [3] Inventory The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked in early June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the staged destocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]