蛋白数据日报-20250528

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the rumor of the result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on Saturday, grains showed strong performance. However, the rumor is unconfirmed and policy variables are large, so caution is advised when going long. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, with spot prices and basis continuing to decline. - In the northern part of the US soybean - producing areas, there will be less rainfall in the next two weeks, but no abnormally high temperatures, and the expected impact is limited. - Brazilian premiums have stabilized recently. - In the short term, the bullish driving force is limited. The near - month futures and basis are still under supply pressure. The 109 contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading. - Continuously monitor policy and weather changes. Subsequently, consider long opportunities for M11 and 00 contracts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Spread Data - The report presents the basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the spread data between M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, etc., and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [3][4]. International Data - It shows the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the CNF premium of imported soybeans, and the trend of the CNF premium of soybeans in the United States and Brazil [4]. Inventory Data - As of last week, soybean inventory decreased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. Soybean meal inventory increased to 20.69 tons and is still low. Feed companies' soybean meal inventory days increased but are still at a low level [5]. Supply and Demand - Supply: From May to July in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current purchase progress for June is 92.7%, July is 74.4%, and August is 29.7%. US soybean planting progress is fast, and there is a sign of dry weather in the next two weeks in some areas. The flood in the Argentine soybean - producing area is expected to have limited impact. - Demand: Before September, supply is expected to increase steadily. Poultry inventory remains high. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [4][5].