中信期货晨报：商品整体下跌为主，欧线集运、工业硅跌幅领先-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - Domestic Macro: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - Asset View: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - Stock Index Options: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - Container Shipping on the European Route: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - Steel: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - Iron Ore: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - Coke: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - Coking Coal: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - Aluminum Oxide: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - LPG: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - Livestock and Poultry: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - Cotton: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].