2025年内地中期宏观经济展望

Market Overview - A-shares continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% to 3,340 points, marking a four-day losing streak[18] - U.S. markets rebounded significantly after a holiday, with the Dow Jones up 740 points (1.78%) and the S&P 500 rising 2.05%[11] - European markets also saw gains, with the Stoxx 600 index increasing by 0.37% amid positive economic data and trade negotiations[11] Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, driven by fiscal expansion focused on consumption recovery and infrastructure investment[7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index saw its largest increase in four years, indicating a potential boost in economic activity[7] - The European Central Bank anticipates inflation to hover around 2% for the year, influenced by U.S. tariff impacts[7] Commodity and Currency Trends - International crude oil prices fell by 1% due to OPEC+ production expectations, with WTI at $60.89 per barrel[30] - Gold prices dropped by 1.9% to $3,300.4 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand[30] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.6%, while the euro and pound both saw slight declines against the dollar[28] Investment Strategies - For the second half of 2025, focus on sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology and healthcare, particularly those benefiting from AI advancements[10] - Emphasis on high-dividend yielding assets in utilities and financial sectors as stable investment options[16] - The strategy includes a shift towards core assets and emerging industries, anticipating a bull market in Chinese equities starting in Q4 2025[21]