中国期货每日简报-20250528

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - From January to April, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 1.4% year-on-year [3][35] - On May 27, equity index and CGB futures declined. Agricultural product futures performed well, while most metal and energy & chemical futures dropped [2][3][11][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On May 27, equity index and CGB futures declined. Agricultural product futures performed well, while most metal and energy & chemical futures dropped [11][13] - The top three gainers were TSR 20, rapeseed meal, and glass. TSR 20 rose by 2.6% with a 6.9% month-on-month increase in open interest; rapeseed meal increased by 1.5% with a 1.5% month-on-month increase in open interest; and glass advanced by 1.2% with a 1.9% month-on-month decrease in open interest [11][13] - The top three decliners were the SCFIS(Europe), silicon metal, and woodpulp. The SCFIS(Europe) fell by 3.7% with a 7.2% month-on-month decrease in open interest; silicon metal dropped by 3.6% with a 10.2% month-on-month increase in open interest; and woodpulp declined by 2.8% with a 9.0% month-on-month decrease in open interest [12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Rise - Lithium Carbonate - On May 27, lithium carbonate increased by 0.9% to 60,920 yuan/ton. Weak fundamentals keep lithium prices under pressure [17][19] - On the supply side, weekly production decreased by 537 tons month-on-month to 16,000 tons, still at a relatively high level. On the demand side, domestic positive electrode materials maintained growth from January to April but with a slowdown in growth rate. Demand is expected to enter a slack season in June, and demand expectations are not optimistic. From the perspective of inventory, social inventory saw a small weekly reduction of 141 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory also decreased slightly. Regarding the cost aspect, after the recent drop of ore prices below $700, the decline has slowed, but current ore prices have not reached mine cost levels. In the follow-up, the cost support near $600 may be tested, further depressing lithium carbonate prices [18][19] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Poly-silicon - On May 27th, polysilicon price dropped by 1.2% to 35,290 yuan per ton. The game between bulls and bears has intensified, causing the polysilicon price to fluctuate widely. The registration of warehouse receipts should be continuously monitored [23][25] - Recently, the registration speed of polysilicon warehouse receipts has accelerated. Meanwhile, there is great uncertainty regarding the resumption of polysilicon production during the flood season. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, it is expected that during the flood season, the production capacity of large - scale manufacturers will mainly be for replacement, and the supply pressure is expected to be greatly alleviated. Under the influence of both bullish and bearish news, the price fluctuation of polysilicon has increased. From the supply - side perspective, as most polysilicon manufacturers are still in a loss - making state, coupled with the dry season in Southwest China, the polysilicon production capacities in Yunnan Province and Sichuan Province have been shut down successively. The output of polysilicon is currently at a low level in the short term. The output in April was less than 100,000 tons, and it is expected to remain at a low level in May. On the demand side, the rush - installation of photovoltaic projects has ended, and the prices of downstream photovoltaic products such as modules have started to decline. Considering the expected decrease in photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year, there is a risk of weakening demand for polysilicon [24][25] 3.1.3.2 Silicon Metal - On May 27, silicon metal decreased by 3.6% to 7,440 yuan/ton. Supply pressure of silicon metal has intensified, and the price is under pressure [28][32] - On the supply side, large - scale factories in the north plan to resume production in the near future. Meanwhile, as the abundant - water period in the southwest is approaching, the operating rate in Sichuan has taken the lead in rebounding. Subsequently, the operating rate in Yunnan is also expected to rise. The domestic supply pressure of silicon metal is anticipated to increase in June. In April, China's monthly output of silicon metal was 301,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%; exports of silicon metal were 60,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% [29][32] - On the demand side, the current downstream demand for silicon metal remains weak. Poly - silicon plants continue to cut production, and subsequent supply is expected to remain relatively low, reducing the demand for silicon metal. The operating rate of the organosilicon industry has slightly recovered, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. The demand for silicon metal from the aluminum alloy industry has a limited impact. The recent inventory of silicon metal has seen a slight decline, but the current inventory level is still high, and further accumulation is expected. According to data from Baichuan, the domestic inventory is 419,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.02%, among which the market inventory is 168,000 tons and the factory inventory is 252,000 tons [30][31][32] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - From January to April, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved a total profit of 2,117.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. Among them, state - holding enterprises achieved a total profit of 702.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; joint - stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 1,559.64 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; foreign - funded enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan achieved a total profit of 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and private enterprises achieved a total profit of 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [35] 3.2.2 Industry News - On May 26 (local time in Brazil), the ChiNext ETF issued by Bradesco, a Brazilian asset management company, was successfully listed on the Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange. This product invests in the "ChiNext ETF Huaxia" listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the form of a feeder fund [36][37]