FLSmidth & Co. (FLS.CO) 利润率提升推动重新评级；上调至买入

Investment Rating - The report upgrades FLSmidth to a Buy rating from Neutral, with a 12-month price target increased to DKK 430 from DKK 340, indicating an upside potential of 17.9% [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that FLSmidth is expected to improve its margins by +320 basis points to 14.2% by 2027, driven by SG&A savings and a higher mix of service and PCV [1]. - The current EV/EBIT multiple of 9.9x is below its 10-year median of 11.5x, suggesting a re-rating is warranted as the company enhances its margin prospects [1]. - FLSmidth is in exclusive negotiations to divest its Cement business, which could act as a catalyst for a re-rating as it transitions to a pure-play mining business [1]. - The company anticipates a gradual increase in orders, forecasting group orders to be +0.3%/+0.7%/+1.8% above consensus for FY25/26/27 [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FLSmidth are DKK 20,187 million for FY24, DKK 18,683.9 million for FY25, DKK 19,341.2 million for FY26, and DKK 20,269.9 million for FY27 [2]. - Adjusted EBIT estimates are projected to be DKK 1,998.5 million for FY24, DKK 2,271.3 million for FY25, DKK 2,419.7 million for FY26, and DKK 2,642.5 million for FY27 [2]. - EPS is expected to grow from DKK 22.51 in FY24 to DKK 32.50 in FY27, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation ratios, including a P/E ratio of 15.3x for FY24, decreasing to 11.2x by FY27, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [7]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.3% in FY24 to 3.6% in FY27, suggesting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [7]. - The report notes a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.2x for FY25, indicating a strong balance sheet position [7]. Market Position and Strategy - FLSmidth is positioned as a leader in the mining equipment sector, with a focus on enhancing its service offerings and operational efficiency [13]. - The company aims to close the margin gap with its mining equipment peers, which trade at an average EV/EBIT multiple of 14.35x [1]. - The transition to a service-based business model is expected to support higher margins and improved returns on invested capital (ROIC) [33][39].