Intercontinental Exchange(US:ICE) Goldman Sachs·2025-05-28 05:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) with a 12-month price target of $191, indicating an upside of 8.4% from the current price of $176.12 [33] Core Insights - ICE's Energy business is projected to continue its robust growth trajectory, supported by structural tailwinds such as the globalization of natural gas, increasing Brent dominance, and the U.S. administration's push for energy exports [2][4] - The Mortgage segment is showing signs of improvement, with management confident in capturing a larger share of the $14 billion revenue total addressable market (TAM) as industry headwinds diminish [24] - The Fixed Income & Data Services segment is expected to achieve over 5% growth driven by unique data offerings and increasing demand for analytics [29][31] Summary by Sections Energy Business - ICE's Energy revenues are on track for another record year, with over $2 billion in annual revenues, accounting for more than 20% of total revenues and over 25% of operating income [2] - Year-to-date growth in Energy revenues exceeds 20%, following a 25% growth last year and 29% growth in 2023 [2] - The firm anticipates continued growth in LNG and natural gas benchmarks, with TTF volumes up approximately 30% year-to-date [4][15] Mortgage Segment - The mortgage business has undergone significant transformation, with management seeing early signs of idiosyncratic growth that could outweigh broader industry challenges [24] - Recent improvements in origination volumes, with new purchases up 10% year-over-year and refinancing up 50% year-over-year, support a positive near-term outlook [24][27] Fixed Income & Data Services - The Fixed Income segment is experiencing steady growth, driven by demand for unique pricing content and analytics, with the index business contributing over $100 million in revenue [29][31] - Management expects continued growth in fixed income Active ETFs and further integration of unique data sets from the mortgage franchise [31] Data Centers and Connectivity - ICE is expanding its data center capabilities to support future connectivity revenue growth, driven by rising demand from various market participants [32] - The firm operates its private cloud, which is more cost-effective compared to outsourcing, enhancing operational efficiency and easing future M&A integration [32]